Wednesday, February 24, 2021

2021 Red Sox Preview: Alex Verdugo

 Background:

Alex Verdugo entered the 2019 season ranked as the #35, #35, and #19 prospect across the big three national ranking sites. He then went on to produce 3.2 WAR in only 106 games on a stacked Dodgers team, and likely would've had a much bigger season if not for some late-year back trouble.

Already a bit controversial both due to his intense play and a questionable off-the-field incident that won't be rehashed here, "Dugie" then became the centerpiece of the Mookie Betts trade, casting monstrous expectations on him that he never deserved.

2020:

Yet in a year when the team played lifeless, objectively bad baseball, Verdugo continuously provided a spark with his infectious energy and enthusiasm. This endeared him to Red Sox fans who were still paying attention, as did his .308 average with six homers, four steals, and an .844 OPS in just 53 games.

Verdugo is unlikely to ever be a mega star, which is why anyone expecting him to "replace" Betts never understood the trade in the first place. Set to turn 25 in May, Verdugo does everything well. As evidenced by the stats above he can hit for average, provide some pop, steal some bases, and play strong defense in Fenway's spacious right field.

His batted-ball numbers are weak as Verdugo doesn't make consistently hard contact. Instead, he's a hitter who would've been more revered in the 70s and 80s, spraying line drives all over the field and "finding the holes." It's a natural approach that isn't influenced by today's buzz terms like exit velocity and launch angle. Verdugo can still turn on pitches with authority when needed, though. 

Contract Situation:

Verdugo is earning just $575,000 this year and won't be eligible for arbitration until 2022. He becomes a free agent following the 2024 season.

2021 And Beyond:

Presently, Verdugo is the favorite to be the team's everyday leadoff hitter. It would be maddening for Alex Cora to platoon his still-developing bat, especially because his career OPS against lefties (.788) isn't far off from his number against RHPs (.810). 

Defensively, Verdugo is an asset. He can handle right field in Fenway but with Jackie Bradley Jr. looking unlikely to return he might be needed in center field on occasion. Part of Chaim Bloom's offseason plan has seemingly been to acquire versatile players who can be used in a variety of different positions depending on the opposing pitcher, ballpark, lineup, etc. If Dugie can cement himself atop the lineup, the added defensive versatility has the potential to make him an All-Star.


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