Friday, June 3, 2016

Checking In On Trevor Story Since His Ridiculous Opening Week


Unless you were living under a rock during the opening week of Major League Baseball you probably remember the name Trevor Story. Through the first six games of his career the 23-year-old shortstop batted .333 with seven home runs and 12 RBI in 28 plate appearances. Story originally won the job out of spring training in part because of Jose Reyes' domestic violence suspension that kept him out of action through May 31. With Reyes currently on a minor league rehab assignment the Rockies will be forced to make a decision soon, which means it's a good time to check in on how Story has done since opening week.

 When you're as young as Trevor Story and start your career the way he did there are going to be fans who think he is the next Carlos Correa or Kris Bryant. However, although Story was the 45th pick of the 2011 draft he was never considered a top prospect. The highest he ever ranked on Baseball America's top 100 list was 96th after 2012. Entering 2016 Story was only ranked as the team's eighth best minor league player. While Baseball America is not the definitive decision maker of who turns out good and who does not, it shows Story was not a highly touted rookie entering the season.

 It's for this reason that many were skeptical of Story's start. Obviously it was impossible to keep up the pace he was on but the question going forward was how much he would fall back down to earth. For the season Story is hitting .261 with 15 home runs, which means in the 203 plate appearances (45 games) since his scorching start he has hit .250 with eight home runs. 

The most concerning stat for Story is his MLB leading 76 strikeouts. Many great hitters, such as Chris Davis, strikeout at similar rates, which is fine as long as they are drawing walks and getting on base. But Story has just a .317 OBP so far so while the power has remained since opening week he needs to do a better job of understanding the strike zone and increasing his walk rate. 

 In an ideal world the Rockies find a trade partner for Reyes and let Story continue to develop. Story has done nothing to lose the job but Reyes' contract could come into play here. He is owed $22 million next season and it's unlikely Colorado would be willing to sit him and get nothing in return. The only way to increase his trade value is to play him. Reyes just played his first minor league rehab game last night so they still have some time to make a decision but this has certainly become a story worth monitoring.
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