When Alex Rodriguez signed a 10 year, $252 million deal as a free agent heading into 2001 it easily became the most lucrative contract in baseball history. In the 16 years since the total value of that deal has been surpassed three times. Currently the largest contract ever belongs to Giancarlo Stanton, who signed a 13 year, $325 million deal back in 2014. As the value of baseball contracts continue to grow this record probably won't stand for long. Since Mike Trout signed a six year, $150 million extension with the Angels before 2014 the next record breaking contract will likely come from the stacked 2018 free agent class where Bryce Harper is starting negotiations at $400 million.
One of the biggest factors to look at when teams shell out these gigantic, long term deals is age. While the $400 million asking price is high, one thing Harper will have going for him in 2018 will be his youth. Since he came into the majors as a 19-year-old he will be just 25 when he reaches free agency, which is the same age A-Rod was at for his first record breaking contract. Age is important to consider mostly for the back half of these contracts. For example, when Albert Pujols signed a 10 year contract as a 32-year-old in 2012 it meant he would be getting paid until age 41. A-Rod was also 32 when he signed his second record setting contract in 2008 (10 years, $275 million). It's easy to see how these deals can start to look ugly after just a few seasons. Harper, meanwhile, would be just 35 when a theoretical 10 year deal expires. Perhaps you don't think he's worth $400 million but it makes a heck of a lot more sense to give that deal to a 25-year-old as opposed to a 30-year-old.
Now let's get into how good Harper actually is. We know he had a down season last year but instead of just saying "he sucks" let's take a closer look at his situation and try to figure out why he struggled. The first thing I notice when looking at his stats from 2015 to 2016 is the massive drop in batting average, which fell from .330 to .243. This can partially be explained by luck. Harper has a career batting average on balls in play of .317. His 2015 BABIP was .369, which means he was rather lucky that season. In 2016 that number fell to .264. So basically as lucky as Harper got in his MVP season he was equally unlucky this past year.
As for the loss of power (42 homers in 2015, 24 in 2016) a shoulder injury could be to blame. Although he didn't require a stint on the disabled list it was reported a couple times throughout the season that he was playing hurt and a shoulder injury certainly affects power. The timeline of the injury, which likely occurred around May or June, makes sense since his numbers fell off after a scorching hot start. In 23 games in April Harper hit .286/.406/.714 with nine homers. He had a slugging percentage of .491 in the first half compared to just .373 in the second half. He's certainly better than what he showed during this second half. 2015 is proof of that.
A $400 million deal probably isn't going to happen. Harper likely knows this and is simply using the huge number as an early negotiating tactic. Even though we have seen record setting contracts before and even though the overall value of baseball contracts continue to grow it's hard to imagine a player receiving $40 million per year. However, it's worth noting that joining Harper in the 2018 free agent class will be Manny Machado, who some baseball people think could get even more than Bryce. A bidding war could develop, which would increase the value of both their contracts. It's also worth noting that the Yankees are expected to be major players in this class just as their young guys should be contributing on team friendly contracts. Ultimately it shouldn't come as a huge surprise if Harper gets north of $300 million, or even breaks Stanton's $325 million record.
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