2021 Red Sox Preview: Bobby Dalbec

 Background:

A fourth-round pick from 2016, Bobby Dalbec arrived to the Red Sox as a power hitting third baseman (who also pitched!) but also struck out a lot. The full breakout came in 2018 when he launched 32 homers and drove in 109 between High-A and Double-A. During this time he also began showing a trend - as Dalbec gained more experience in each minor league level, he was able to cut down on his strikeouts.

By the end of 2019 Dalbec began transitioning to first base as it was clear he was blocked by Rafael Devers at the big league level. Baseball America ranked him as the 75th best prospect entering 2020. 

2020:

Several Red Sox prospects took advantage of the strangeness that was 2020. We've already talked about Jarren Duran overhauling his swing last spring and continuing that transformation at the alternate training site. Dalbec was also able to take advantage of his time in Pawtucket last summer, which eventually led to a big league promotion.

Dalbec raked upon arriving to the majors, hitting eight homers with a .959 OPS in just 23 games. However, a look under the hood reveals some disturbing info. Dalbec posted a .394 BABIP and a .197 expected batting average (per baseball savant). This is a sign that he got really lucky, and it's similar to the hot start we saw from Michael Chavis in '19 (which isn't a good thing).

Contract Situation:

Dalbec didn't play enough in 2020 to exhaust his prospect eligibility. He'll officially be a rookie in 2021.

2021 And Beyond:

Dalbec struck out in a hideous 42.4% of his plate appearances in the majors last summer. He had success when he connected, but it was such a short sample that pitchers barely had the opportunity to begin exposing the holes in his swing. For the 25-year-old to last as a big leaguer he's going to need to continue the trend of reducing his strikeout rate once he gets settled at a higher level.

Defensively, Dalbec is still learning how to play first base. He has talked openly about how he doesn't want to be viewed as a plodding slugger (which he isn't). Manager Alex Cora calls Dalbec a "complete baseball player", highlighting his athleticism running the bases and sound footwork around the bag. He'll open the year as Boston's everyday first baseman and will hit in the bottom third of the batting order.