Thursday, May 12, 2016

Madison Bumgarner Is Getting Even Better


When baseball fans hear the name Madison Bumgarner they think one thing. Playoffs. Bumgarner is a legendary postseason performer having already played an integral part in three World Series victories. In the 2014 postseason alone he registered a 1.03 ERA in 52.2 innings pitched with 45 strikeouts and two complete game shutouts. Since his rookie season in 2010 he has always been one of the best pitchers in the league, which makes it scary that he's getting even better.

The biggest development for Bumgarner thus far in 2016 is that he is striking batters out at the highest rate of his career. In fact his strikeouts per nine have increased every year since 2012 when he was at 8.3. Through 49.2 innings this season Bumgarner has 60 strikeouts, which is good for 10.9 K/9. 


Unfortunately Bumgarner's walks have also increased. After allowing just 39 free passes in 2015 he has already issued 18 this season. The walks have yet to catch up with his results however, as he holds a 2.72 ERA through eight starts, which would be the lowest of his career for a full season.

The rise in strikeouts this season may go hand in hand with the increase in number of walks. So to lower the amount of free passes may mean not as many strikeouts for Bumgarner. This would be alright because his 10.9 K/9 rate is so insanely higher than his 2015 total and previous career high of 9.6. 

Bumgarner's prime has been overshadowed by Clayton Kershaw's historic run of excellence. Despite all his regular season accomplishments Bumgarner has never finished higher than fourth in the Cy Young voting. With Kershaw off to another dominant start a shot at the award seems unlikely this year. However, it's worth noting that Bumgarner is continuing to improve. At just 26 years old he is having his best season yet.

The Red Hot Seattle Mariners Are In First Place

The Seattle Mariners are arguably the worst franchise in the history of major league baseball. Since joining the league in 1977 the team has never been to the World Series and has made the postseason just four times. They have not made the playoffs since 2001. However, the team is playing well thus far in 2016. Led by Robinson Cano they have won 16 of their past 21 games, which has launched them into first place.

Cano signed a 10 year, $240 million contract before the 2014 season to become the face of the Mariners along with Felix Hernandez. Cano played well through the first two years of the deal but wasn't hitting for power the way he was with the Yankees. Early on in 2016 that has changed as Cano leads the American League with 12 home runs and 33 RBI. 



Cano is supplemented in the lineup by Nelson Cruz and Kyle Seager, who have six and seven home runs respectively. The offense is also receiving contributions from sophomore shortstop Ketel Marte, who is hitting .349 over his last 15 games.

The pitching has been anchored by Felix Hernandez, who has been the ace of this staff for nearly a decade now. The 30-year-old is up to usual stuff this year with a 2.27 ERA after seven starts. However, he is striking out just 6.8 batters per nine innings, which is well below his career average of 8.5/9. It is something to monitor.

King Felix is no longer the only weapon the rotation has. 23-year-old Taijuan Walker has made huge strides in his second full season. Through seven starts he has a 2.63 ERA with 38 strikeouts in 37.2 innings pitched. So far in 2016 he has lowered his walk rate to 1.4/9 from 2.1/9 a year ago. 

It's a shame King Felix has still never pitched in the playoffs. Back in 2013 he signed a seven year contract to remain with Seattle because he wanted to win with the only franchise he has ever known. To do this the Mariners will have to continue taking advantage of their division, specifically the underperforming Astros and injury ridden Angels. This 21 games stretch could simply be a hot streak, or it could be the start of Seattle's first playoff push in 16 years.


The Albert Pujols Contract Is Turning Ugly Fast


Before Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, and Clayton Kershaw there was Albert Pujols. Following the retirement of Barry Bonds and the decline of Alex Rodriguez, Pujols became the unquestioned best player in baseball. He held this title from roughly 2008-2010. So basically before Trout and Harper entered the league for good in 2012. 

During this time frame Pujols finished first, first, and second in the NL MVP voting. In this three year span he led the league in homers twice, slugging twice, runs twice, OBP once, RBI once, and intentional walks three times. His excellence dates all the way back to his 2001 rookie season. From 2001-2010 he never hit lower than .312.

In his final year with the Cardinals in 2011 Pujols finally showed some slight decline. His batting average fell from .312 to .299 and OBP from .414 to .366. However he still hit 37 home runs and went on to have a three-homer game in the World Series, which the Cardinals won.


The 11 year track record of success netted Pujols a 10 year, $240 million contract from the Angels. Since then his OBP has continued to decline every year. Despite the drops in batting average and OBP he was able to hit 40 home runs in 2015 and become an all star for the first time since 2010.

The Angels knew the Pujols contract would look bad on the back end but what is concerning is how quickly that time is coming. He continues to be a power threat, as evidenced by last season and his six homers through 33 games in 2016. However, he is hitting .185 with a .261 OBP. It's early in the season but that is not the start you want to see from a 36-year-old who's on base skills have been declining every year.

The Angels are having injury issues, have little budget flexibility, and control few impact prospects, which means it's not going to be an easy fix for the last place club. Making matters worse is the fact that the Pujols contract is backloaded, which means that AFTER 2016 it still has five years and $140 million left. Albert Pujols was once the unquestioned best player in baseball. Now he might have the unquestioned worst contract in baseball.

Wednesday, May 11, 2016

Stephen Strasburg's Contract Leaves Behind A Weak Free Agent Pitching Class


Nationals co-ace Stephen Strasburg was set up for an enormous pay day this winter. As the only impact arm in the 2016 free agent class teams needing pitching would have been forced to outbid each other for his services. However, Strasburg shocked the baseball world this week by agreeing to a seven year, $175 million extension with opt outs after 
years three and four. 

Those teams that would have had to outbid each other for Strasburg? They won't have many options to choose from now. The "best" available pitchers are in the graphic above, and it's difficult to determine who the best of that group even is. Many MLB teams knew this group would be this bad, which is why David Price and Zack Greinke signed record setting contract this past offseason.




With no quality arms available via free agency teams will be forced to look towards the trade market. Sonny Gray, despite his early season struggles, figures to be the most prominent name available. His services won't come cheap though. Pitching needy teams will either have to give up valuable top prospects through a trade, or settle for one of the underwhelming free agency options.

The Strasburg contract is for the same money and years that Felix Hernandez signed for back in 2013. Strasburg could have theoretically made more this offseason but after having career derailed once by Tommy John surgery he chose the security. The contract is the longest ever for a pitcher who had the surgery. 


Your Reminder That Clayton Kershaw Is Still The Unquestioned Best Pitcher In Baseball


There are a number of answers you can give to the question "who is the second best pitcher in baseball?" The list includes Jake Arrieta, Chris Sale, Felix Hernandez, and Madison Bumgarner, among others. However, there is only one answer to who the best is. On Saturday afternoon Clayton Kershaw reminded us why it's him by shutting down one of baseball's most dangerous lineups on the road. Kershaw limited the Blue Jays to two runs in seven innings while striking out 10 en route to his fourth win.

So far this season Kershaw has gone at least seven innings in each of his seven starts. Overall he is 4-1 with a 2.04 ERA and a league leading 64 strikeouts in just 53 innings pitched. With just three walks allowed Kershaw leads the league in K/BB at an insane 21.33. The next highest is 9.67:



What makes Kershaw the best pitcher in baseball is not just what he has done this year. It's the extended run of dominance he is in the middle of. From 2011-2015 he never finished below third in the Cy Young voting and won three times. During the same time span he has won the 2014 MVP award, four ERA titles, three strikeout titles, four WHIP titles, and led the league in wins twice. 

Kershaw's dominance continuing into 2016 shows there are no signs of him slowing down. He is in the middle of the most impressive run of pitching the league has seen since Pedro in the late 90's. Every now and then analysts will make the claim that someone else has surpassed Kershaw. Yet here he is in May 2016, the early favorite to capture his fourth Cy Young in the past six seasons.

Saturday, May 7, 2016

Breaking: Mike Trout Is Not On The Trade Block


Fox Sports - The Angels, after losing ace right-hander Garrett Richards to season-ending Tommy John surgery, will not entertain the thought of trading center fielder Mike Trout.


The loss of Richards, combined with the continued absence of left-hander Andrew Heaney, will severely compromise the Angels' postseason chances.

General manager Billy Eppler, however, is adamant about keeping Trout rather than moving him for a haul of talent to boost the Angels' depleted farm system.

So this is the most obvious news of all time. Why it was even a question is preposterous. It's the equivalent of the Warriors trading Steph Curry or the Packers trading Aaron Rodgers. No matter how bad the Angels get they will never trade Trout. He is a once in a lifetime player.



The reason this is even a story is because the Angels are struggling. They are off to a disappointing 13-16 start and just lost ace Garrett Richards to Tommy John surgery. After winning 98 games in 2014 the team regressed to 85 last season and are now under .500 in 2016. While there is still time for the team to turn it around their current roster leaves a lot to be desired, especially without Richards. 

Currently the offense ranks 23rd out of 30 in runs scored and the starting pitching staff ranks 21st in quality starts. While the overall team ERA is 14th that number figures to drop without their ace. What is concerning for Angels fans is that the team does not have much flexibility for immediate roster improvements. Over the past several years they have shelled out gigantic, long-term contracts for Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton, and CJ Wilson. They also traded their best prospect this past off-season for shortstop Andrelton Simmons.



Outside of being fucking incredible the other reason Trout isn't going anywhere is his contract. He is currently in the second year of a six year, $144.5 million deal, which is an incredible value for someone of Trout's caliber and age. Instead of going the Bryce Harper route and seeking a record setting deal as early as possible, Trout chose security. He is now set for life and although the Angels bought out his first three years of free agency, he can still become one after the 2020 season when he will be just 29 years old. 

Without much budget flexibility the Angels will be hard pressed to make a quick turn around. It will take some savvy trades and signings by General Manager Billy Eppler to get the team back to the postseason. There are holes on this roster but trading one of the league's two best players is not the way to fill them.

Friday, May 6, 2016

Giancarlo Stanton Is Heating Up, Ready To Break Out


Following a slow start to the season Giancarlo Stanton is finally heating up. Over his last 10 games Stanton has raised his average 40 points, from .230 to .272. He did this by going 14-35 (.400) with six home runs and 12 RBI. He now sits at nine home runs on the year, which is tied for fifth in the league. Still just 26 years old it's time Stanton gained proper recognition for his accomplishments.

Similar to Nolan Arenado, Stanton has always been the victim of playing for an irrelevant team. Since his rookie season in 2010 the Marlins have never finished above .500:


The other factor that has prevented Giancarlo from superstar status has been injuries. Out of his five full seasons with the Marlins he has played at least 123 games just twice. One of those seasons was 2014, where Stanton hit 37 homers with a .288/.395/.555 clip and finished second in the MVP voting. 

Expectations were therefore high entering last season and until a broken hand ended his season Stanton did not disappoint. In just 74 games he hit an insane 27 home runs. When healthy Stanton has proven to be the best power hitter in all of baseball.


Despite Dee Gordon's 80 game suspension the Marlins are off to a surprising 15-12 start. While many do not expect Miami to make the playoffs, Stanton's popularity should sky rocket if he can stay healthy and the Marlins remain competitive. He has the potential to be the coolest player in baseball.