2021 Red Sox Preview: Bobby Dalbec

 Background:

A fourth-round pick from 2016, Bobby Dalbec arrived to the Red Sox as a power hitting third baseman (who also pitched!) but also struck out a lot. The full breakout came in 2018 when he launched 32 homers and drove in 109 between High-A and Double-A. During this time he also began showing a trend - as Dalbec gained more experience in each minor league level, he was able to cut down on his strikeouts.

By the end of 2019 Dalbec began transitioning to first base as it was clear he was blocked by Rafael Devers at the big league level. Baseball America ranked him as the 75th best prospect entering 2020. 

2020:

Several Red Sox prospects took advantage of the strangeness that was 2020. We've already talked about Jarren Duran overhauling his swing last spring and continuing that transformation at the alternate training site. Dalbec was also able to take advantage of his time in Pawtucket last summer, which eventually led to a big league promotion.

Dalbec raked upon arriving to the majors, hitting eight homers with a .959 OPS in just 23 games. However, a look under the hood reveals some disturbing info. Dalbec posted a .394 BABIP and a .197 expected batting average (per baseball savant). This is a sign that he got really lucky, and it's similar to the hot start we saw from Michael Chavis in '19 (which isn't a good thing).

Contract Situation:

Dalbec didn't play enough in 2020 to exhaust his prospect eligibility. He'll officially be a rookie in 2021.

2021 And Beyond:

Dalbec struck out in a hideous 42.4% of his plate appearances in the majors last summer. He had success when he connected, but it was such a short sample that pitchers barely had the opportunity to begin exposing the holes in his swing. For the 25-year-old to last as a big leaguer he's going to need to continue the trend of reducing his strikeout rate once he gets settled at a higher level.

Defensively, Dalbec is still learning how to play first base. He has talked openly about how he doesn't want to be viewed as a plodding slugger (which he isn't). Manager Alex Cora calls Dalbec a "complete baseball player", highlighting his athleticism running the bases and sound footwork around the bag. He'll open the year as Boston's everyday first baseman and will hit in the bottom third of the batting order.

2021 Red Sox Preview: Adam Ottavino

 Background:

Adam Ottavino is famous for saying that he would strike out Babe Ruth "every time" if he faced him in this day and age. While that sounds boastful at first, it's probably true. Ruth played well before players started taking better care of their bodies. It's also a given that he never experienced a slider like Ottavino's.

Ever since "AO" broke out in 2013 with the Rockies, he has used a deceptive delivery with a plus-plus slider to keep hitters uncomfortable. Without knowing whether the slider or fastball is coming, hitters can often look foolish against Ottavino. The only downside to this approach is, similar to his new teammate Matt Barnes, there can be a lot of walks.

2020:

Last summer was a disaster for Ottavino. who posted a hideous 5.89 ERA in 18 1/3 innings. Of course, regular readers of TooMuchTuma.Blogspot.com know better than to judge a reliever by their ERA from a shortened season. This is because the 35-year-old had one outing where he allowed six earned runs without recording an out. Yet the abbreviated season meant that he never had the time to recover.

A cerebral pitcher, Ottavino feels like he knows what went wrong:

• “I don’t want to give away too many things,” Ottavino said in response to my question. “But multiple shapes of my breaking pitches is the area where I can be elite at. That’s the category I feel is my specialty. Just trying to lean into that and grab a little better control of pitches that break downward, as well as sideways and everything in between… I just want to be a little more diversified.”

• Ottavino elaborated, saying that he’d become too enamored with a specific shape on his slider, and as a result, hitters had begun tracking its break. Hence the desire to return to throwing multiple variations of his signature pitch.

To summarize, AO needs to mix in other breaking pitches besides his slider, which hitters have grown used to.

Contract Situation:

Also like Barnes, Ottavino is a free agent after 2021. He was acquired in a trade with the Yankees this offseason as New York aimed to shed payroll. Boston also received a pitching prospect as part of the return.

2021 And Beyond:

We know that Cora hasn't named a closer yet. The options are seemingly Barnes and Ottavino, with Barnes being the presumed favorite as of now. For all the success he has had in late-inning situations, Ottavino hasn't ever been used as a locked-in closer and has just 19 saves in his career. That doesn't really mean anything, of course, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him get some ninth-inning chances. He's one of a handful of pitchers the Sox need to "bounce back" in 2021.

2021 Red Sox Preview: Enrique Hernandez

 Background:

Chaim Bloom has talked a lot about versatility this offseason. Coming from the Rays, this shouldn't be a surprise. But versatility isn't just about having a player who can play multiple positions. It's about having players who can affect the game in a variety of ways - whether it's defensive versatility, hitting lefties well, hitting for power against right-handers, speed, etc. For example, Bloom's signing of Hunter Renfroe brings in a player who mashes lefties while also contributing defensively as a right fielder. Those are two areas he can affect the game.

We'll get to Renfroe eventually. Today we're discussing Enrique Hernandez, who throughout his career has done a lot of things well, but rarely has it all aligned at once. The exception is 2018 when Hernandez posted 3.3 WAR (4-5 is considered All-Star range) en route to a career year. Otherwise, he's been a useful player who hits lefties well, is an elite defender at second base, and also offers the ability to play the outfield well.

2020:

Hernandez's surface level stats aren't ever special and that's certainly the case for his 2020 performance. The 29-year-old hit just .230 with five homers, a .680 OPS, and zero stolen bases last summer. Even in the career year of 2018 he hit .256 with an .806 OPS. Again, on the surface that isn't special. Remember, though, that his value comes from being able to do so many different things either average or above-average.

The highlight of his 2020 came in the playoffs when Hernandez hit a pinch-hit, game-tying homer against the Braves in Game 7 of the NLCS. Hernandez came off the bench in the sixth inning to face - you guessed it - a lefty. Known for being an energetic teammate, Kiké arrives in Boston with plenty of postseason experience due to his time with the Dodgers.

Contract Situation:

The Sox signed Hernandez to a two-year, $14 million option this offseason.

2021 And Beyond:

Hopefully it's obvious by now but expect Hernandez to serve a variety of roles this season. His main responsibilities will be handling second base and hitting high in the order versus lefties. The second base defense is going to be massive as Boston hasn't gotten anything positive out of that position defensively since Dustin Pedroia was fully healthy in 2016-17. Upgrading the infield defense has been one of Alex Cora's early themes in spring training.

We should also expect Hernandez to play all three outfield positions as well as being Xander Bogaerts' backup at shortstop. As for where he'll hit in the order, the team is going to mix and match a lot depending on the opposing pitcher, ballpark, etc. Hernandez should be considered likely to hit third versus lefties, but a lot of the batting order remains to be seen.

2021 Red Sox Preview: Garrett Richards

 

Background:

The 32-year-old made his MLB debut back in 2011 with the Angels and had several promising seasons before injuries really began piling up. However, Richards has always been good when healthy, as evidenced by his career 3.62 ERA. 

Despite the strong results it's fair to wonder if Richards' organizations have ever maximized his talents. He has such strong "stuff" that if a team like the Rays had signed him this offseason, the rest of the baseball world would be wondering how good they're going to make him.

Richards' issue has been health. Incredibly, he hasn't made more than 16 starts in a year since 2015. His brutal health history makes him impossible to rely on for a full season, but he at least stayed healthy during the shortened 2020 campaign (appearing in 14 games, including 10 starts).

2020:

Richards underwent Tommy John surgery in 2018 and while he has more or less "recovered" from it, there's still one hurdle he needs to work through. The aforementioned "stuff" that Richards possesses includes a highly effective fastball-slider combo. The two pitches both possess good spin and work together to keep hitters off balance.

For Richards to reach his full potential, though, he'll need to regain the movement on his two-seam fastball. As good as the fastball-slider combo is, those pitches move in the same direction. If he can pair them with a two-seamer that generates more sinking action, that's how Richards will unlock his full potential. While pitching for the Padres last summer he noted that he didn't yet have that sinking action post-Tommy John.

Contract Situation:

The Red Sox signed Richards to a one-year, $10 million contract this offseason that includes a $10 million club option for 2022.

2021 And Beyond:

The signing was revealing in the sense that Chaim Bloom chose the upside of Richards over a more stable rotation option such as Jake Odorizzi. Perhaps this is a sign that 2021 isn't the all-in year for the Sox some of us thought it would be following the Mookie Betts trade. It seems as if Bloom is taking one more year to lay the foundation for a big winter entering 2022.

Of course, maybe that's me reading too much into things and the front office simply preferred Richards over Odorizzi. Either way, Richards' injury history means we can't rely on him for 30 starts in all likelihood, but a positive outcome for his season would be pitching effectively enough while healthy that we then pick up that '22 club option.

2021 Red Sox Preview: Matt Barnes

 Background:

Somehow Matt Barnes is now the longest tenured reliever on the Red Sox. A first-round pick from 2011, Barnes has had a variety of roles within the organization - a top prospect, starter, setup man on a championship club, "fireman" reliever - to name a few. Entering 2021 he might add another to the list - closer.

Barnes is talented. Among qualified relievers he has the fourth highest K/9 over the past three seasons. Only Aroldis Chapman, Edwin Diaz, and Josh Hader have performed better in this category. Yet for all the success he has missing bats, Barnes struggles badly with his control at times. His walk rate has been bottom 10th percentile or worse over the past three years.

2020:

Last season Barnes had another issue - he was getting hit hard. After mainly avoiding hard-hit damage in 2018 and 2019 (at the expense of walks), Barnes was getting shelled in 2020. And he was still walking people. He attributes his struggles to the stop-and-start nature of the shortened season, which affected many other players around the league as well.

Specifically, Barnes noted that the first month of 2020 felt more or less like spring training. If you want to take a positive outlook on Barnes' season, you could buy this narrative. Following the trade that sent Brandon Workman to the Phillies, Boston's new closer posted a 3.38 ERA and converted 9-of-12 save chances. Before the trade he had a 5.59 ERA.

Contract Situation:

Barnes will earn $4.5 million in 2021 before becoming a free agent. There are several more pressing extension possibilities at this time, so expect Barnes to play out his contract this year.

2021 And Beyond:

The last time Alex Cora was manager in 2019 the club went with a "closer-by-committee" approach. Of course, the experiment failed, which has led to Cora saying he wants to name a closer for this season. He hasn't yet, though. Barnes has his warts but he's also the most logical option to handle ninth inning duties. Cora's only decision will be if he sees Barnes more valuable in a setup, "fireman" role.

Something else to consider is that the Sox have greatly overused Barnes in recent years. From 2017-19 he appeared in 70 games twice, and last year he appeared in 24-of-60 contests. Being used as a more traditional closer would theoretically lead to Cora not relying on him too much.

2021 Red Sox Preview: Jarren Duran

 Background:

Boston's seventh-round pick from 2018, Duran wasn't overly hyped before making his minor league debut. However, in his first 67 games of pro ball, the lefty swinging speedster hit .357/.394/.516 and immediately caught the eye of Red Sox prospect analysts. He followed that up with a .303 average and 46 stolen bases in just 132 games in 2019. Though he advanced to Double-A in the second half of the year, his hitting worsened against better competition and there wasn't much power to be shown.

2020:

Entering spring training of 2020, Duran was working with notable swing guru Doug Lata to become a better all-around hitter. (Lata is an independent swing coach who has helped turn around the careers of Justin Turner and others by preaching a more fly ball-centric approach). For his entire life Duran's swing had been designed to take advantage of his speed by creating a flat bat path to produce grounders and line drives.

However, by lowering his hands in his stance, Duran is now able to turn on inside pitches with authority while still giving himself a clear swing path with two strikes. While there will likely be an increase in his strikeout rate once we start keeping season-long stats again, it'll hopefully be coupled with an increased number of hard-hit balls.

https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1301019774332395521?s=20

^Click to see how his swing has changed from 2019 to 2020.

Duran reportedly showed off his newfound power at the alternate training site last summer. He then got some additional experience by playing Winter Ball in Puerto Rico this offseason. Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom notes that throughout 2020, Duran made strides hitting wise without losing any of his game-changing speed.

Contract Situation:

Duran has yet to make his MLB debut and will be under club control for six or seven years depending on when he arrives to Boston.

2021 And Beyond:

While Duran's skill changes are notable, he still hasn't proven himself in the upper minors. So while Alex Cora has already said that Duran will see a lot of action with the big league team this spring, it's a near certainty that he begins 2021 in Triple-A.

A second baseman in his amateur playing days, Duran was drafted by the Sox as an outfielder. His plus-plus speed gives him the profile of a future big league center fielder, though he's still working on his route efficiency on fly balls. Having turned 24 years old last year, Duran seems ready maturity wise for his first taste of the big leagues in 2021. I'm anticipating a mid-summer arrival to Fenway Park.

2021 Red Sox Preview: Chris Sale

 

Background:

Trading for Chris Sale entering the 2017 season was one of Dave Dombrowski's "get us over the hump" moves that ultimately did in fact get the Sox over the hump. (The other moves being signing David Price, trading for Craig Kimbrel, and then signing JD Martinez). While Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech were tough to part with, Boston fans can live with the results of the trade no matter how their careers pan out. The team won the World Series and Sale was a big reason why. Just like with the Hanley Ramirez/Josh Beckett/Mike Lowell swap from back in the day, winning is all that matters.

Sale's first season and a half in a Red Sox uniform was utterly electric. The organization finally found a starter with the ace mentality that was missing ever since the bungled Jon Lester extension conversations. I mean, in his first start with the Sox on a frigid April night, Sale wasn't wearing anything under his jersey. The cold weather didn't phase him. He just wanted to compete and win - a perfect fit with his new city.

His first campaign with the Red Sox was his best, as Sale struck out a whopping 308 batters in 214 1/3 innings, winning 17 games and registering a 2.90 ERA. He finished second in the American League Cy Young voting before finishing in fourth the following year.

Yet as promising as things started out, the elbow issues that analysts predicted would happen to Sale finally arrived. The southpaw finally underwent Tommy John surgery last spring.

2020:

As much as Sale getting hurt sucks, there really was never a better season for it to happen. Not only were the Red Sox awful in 2020, but the shortened season meant that he was able to begin rehab without missing actual games. By all reports things have gone pretty smoothly, minus some neck stiffness around the holidays. Of course, it's far better for him to have suffered a setback due to a neck issue than any lingering elbow pain.

Contract Situation:

Oy. Set to become a free agent after 2019, Dombrowski signed Sale to a five-year, $145 million extension before the season started. He most certainly earned this contract, but the timing of the deal was brutal as his injury issues immediately worsened, leading to the surgery last year. There's no doubt that the Sale extension plus Nathan Eovaldi's contract led the franchise on a path to the Mookie Betts trade, but that's a topic for another day. Set to turn 32 in March, Sale is under contract through 2024.

2021 And Beyond:

Currently, Sale is technically on the 60-day IL and the Sox don't expect him back until late-May or early-June. We really won't have an exact idea until we get closer, and by all reports the team is going to play things extra cautiously with him. Expectations should be tempered early on with an eye on him returning to SP1 status to begin '22.