What The Chris Sale Era Means For Boston

Boston is a city that wants sports titles. Sorry, Boston is a city that demands sports titles. 10 championships in 15 years will do that to a fan base. And if you're not ending a season with a parade you better be playing hard to keep us on your side. This year's Celtics team is a good example. Most fans realize we likely aren't going to the finals this year, but Isaiah Thomas and company give us everything they have on a night to night basis so they have our support.

This mentality translates to individual players as well. A position in which it has been discussed with recently is the ace of the Red Sox. Dating back to the late 90s with Pedro Martinez the Sox have a history of front end starters with bulldog like mentalities. Boston fans have been lucky enough to also witness Curt Schilling, Josh Beckett, and Jon Lester possess this trait. 

The low point of this position came in 2015, which was the year with the infamous John Farrell quote of "I think we have five number ones". In reality that team didn't even have a number two starter. David Price was supposed to change this last year but he hasn't exactly endeared himself into the hearts of Red Sox fans. Rick Porcello has come closest since we lost Lester, but even he didn't get all the way there in his Cy Young winning 2016.

Enter Chris Sale. Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski recognizes his team has a chance to compete for a title right now so he went out and got the best pitcher in the American League. Over the past five seasons Sale has averaged 203 innings pitched, and during individual years has led the league in strikeouts once, ERA+ once, FIP once, and K/9 twice. He has five all star appearances during this time and has yet to finish lower than sixth in the Cy Young voting since he became a full time starter. 

The one knock on Sale is...well actually there is no knock on Sale. He hasn't pitched in the playoffs yet but before 2016 neither had Corey Kluber. Judging by Sale's personality and commitment to winning one would expect him to excel in a postseason atmosphere.  One criticism could be his violent delivery leading to arm trouble but as stated before he has averaged over 200 innings per year since becoming a starter. I haven't been as excited to see a Red Sox starting pitcher since I was a kid watching Pedro.

Unless I'm forgetting someone it was Sale who received the loudest ovation from fans during Opening Day's pregame ceremonies. Price's inability to connect with the Boston fans and media has led to us really wanting Sale to become "the guy". So far he is doing his best to just fit in, evidenced by when he acknowledged Porcello should pitch the first game of the season. Hopefully Sale gets his Red Sox career off to a great start tonight but ultimately all the regular season success in the world won't mean much if he and the team don't perform over the next few Octobers. One way or the other it's going to be an entertaining three year window for Boston baseball. As for now, enjoy the beginning of what could eventually be known as the Chris Sale era.

Red Sox 2017 Opening Day Thoughts

Opening Day is in the books and the Sox are off to a great start after beating the Pirates 5-3. Lets break down the top stories for your undefeated Boston Red Sox:

--Without a doubt the story of the afternoon was Andrew "Benny Baseball" Benintendi's three run homer that contributed to a five run fifth inning for the Sox. Benny became Boston's youngest Opening Day left fielder since Carl Yastrzemski, which is fitting because all the old timers will tell you he reminds them of Yaz and Fred Lynn. While his swing is very similar to Lynn's Red Sox fans should be careful to temper expectations for this year. There is a lot of hype surrounding Benny but it's unrealistic to expect him to be an All star right away, never mind the fact that Lynn won MVP his rookie season. Benny is the favorite for AL Rookie of the Year right now but in the grand scheme of things 2017 is not going to be the best season of his career. Ultimately a .290 batting average with 18 homers and good defense should be considered a successful season for the 22-year-old. 

--In his first start post Cy Young award Rick Porcello picked up right where he left off. His final stat line - three runs, five strikeouts, one walk in 6.1 innings pitched - isn't anything spectacular but it doesn't do justice to how in control he was for most of the game. Two of his earned runs crossed the plate after Porcello left the game and he had a shutout going through his first six innings. The common thought is that Rick will regress this year and while that's a likely scenario I expect him to be much closer to his 2016 form than his 2015 one. Most teams would be lucky to have Porcello as their staff ace but since the Sox got Chris Sale this winter he becomes perhaps the best "number two" starter in baseball.

--The good news from Craig Kimbrel's first appearance of 2017 is that he didn't walk anyone. The bad news is he gave up a leadoff double and later hit a batter before closing out the 5-3 win. The Sox will take the win but a shaky first outing is the last thing fans wanted to see from their closer who walked an alarming 5.1 batters per nine innings just a season ago. Kimbrel still has the "stuff" to be a top reliever in the league as he was consistently hitting the upper 90s with his fastball Monday afternoon. But just like last year there were pitches where he seemingly had no idea where they were going. His fastball and competitiveness will help maintain his status as a top ten closer but it's time for Red Sox fans to acknowledge that his days of being an elite shutdown arm might be over.

--I like the move of batting Xander Bogaerts sixth. He had a horrible second half in 2016, looked over matched in the playoffs, and then did nothing to inspire confidence in the World Baseball Classic when he played for Team Netherlands. So it was encouraging to see Bogaerts go 2-4 yesterday, particularly since he was turning on pitches and using the whole field. When he first came to the majors he had a tendency to spray singles to right field, which is great. But the key to his monster 2016 first half was pulling balls for power, and while there was no home run yesterday he seemed a little more comfortable in this regard. How Bogaerts responds to batting sixth will be one of the keys to Boston's season.

--The last thing I want to point out is a reminder of how nice it is having two aces on a team. There's a baseball cliche that momentum is only as good as your next days starting pitcher. Red Sox fans know both sides of this saying. In 2015 when Clay Buchholz pitched Opening Day we had zero aces and could never count on any one guy to stop a losing streak or help continue a winning one. Now that the 2017 Red Sox have won their first game we hand the ball to perhaps the best pitcher in the American League for a great chance to start the year 2-0. Anytime Porcello and Sale pitch back to back games this year you have to figure the Sox have a floor of one win and often times should win both. Cue the duck boats!

Breaking Down MLB's 2017 Opening Day Slate

It's been a long time coming but we have finally made it to Opening Day. While most teams will begin their seasons on Monday there are three games being played on Sunday, April 2nd as part of an ESPN triple header. It's not the best slate of games I've ever seen but it's definitely worth watching. Let's take a look at the outlooks for each team playing:

1:10 PM Yankees (Tanaka) at Rays (Archer)

Chris Archer will throw out the first pitch of the 2017 season following a very disappointing year prior. Archer had a mild breakout in 2015 when he finished fifth in the Cy Young voting with 252 strikeouts in just 212 innings. Now he's a major bounce back candidate entering the year with enticing 14/1 odds to win the AL Cy Young. According to Bovada the Rays have an over/under of 77.5 right now, which would be a big improvement on last year's last place finish of 68 wins. This figures to be another rebuilding year for Tampa Bay as they try to build a team to make the playoffs for the first time since 2013.

The Yankees are also in the middle of a rebuild, but thanks to their prospects and budget are a lot closer to contending than Tampa. Oh and they have perhaps the best offensive catcher in baseball in Gary Sanchez. That helps. "El Gary" is the face of the Yankees rebuild after he hit 20 homers with a .299/.376/.657 triple slash line last year. Despite playing in just 53 games Sanchez finished second in the Rookie of the Year voting (and probably should have won). Now obviously he isn't going to be hitting homers at the rate he was last season but 35+ isn't out of the question. It remains to be seen if New York has the starting rotation to be playing meaningful games come September but even if they don't in 2017 it won't be long until they are.

4:10 PM Giants (Bumgarner) at Diamondbacks (Greinke)

It's tough to screw up an off-season worse than the Arizona Diamondbacks did coming into last year. It was a classic example of a team thinking they are way closer to the playoffs than they really were and now the franchise is in a much worse spot than they could have been in. The first major mistake a year ago was trading NUMBER ONE OVERALL DRAFT PICK AND BLUE CHIP PROSPECT Dansby Swanson (plus Ender Inciarte) to the Braves for Shelby Miller. While Miller pitched well in 2015 there were stats to show it wasn't repeatable. He got sent down to AAA last season while Swanson looks like he's going to be one of baseball's next great shortstops. Then the team signed Zack Greinke to the highest average annual salary ever for a starting pitcher. This move wasn't as egregious at the time because when you need an ace in free agency you have to overpay, but so far the signing has back fired. Last year Greinke registered a 4.37 ERA and so far this spring his velocity is down to the 88-89 mph range. It's going to be a long summer in Arizona.

The visiting Giants are in a much better place than their division rival. The magic of the "even year" narrative died in 2016 when the team lost to the Cubs in four games in the opening round of the playoffs. If it wasn't for a game four bullpen collapse the Giants would have forced a deciding fifth game against Chicago with the Cubs playing under the weight of a 108 year World Series drought, which means anything could have happened. Giants President of Baseball Operations Brian Sabean recognizes that the time to win is now with Madison Bumgarner and Buster Posey in their primes, so he went out and signed closer Mark Melancon to anchor the back end of the bullpen. The Giants haven't made the playoffs in an odd numbered year since 2003 but if they find a way into the dance then their postseason experience makes them the Cubs' biggest threat in the National League.

8:35 PM Cubs (Lester) at Cardinals (Martinez)

Major League Baseball hasn't seen a repeat champion since the Yankees won three in a row from 1998-2000. Yet since then no reigning champ has been better positioned to defend their title than the 2017 Chicago Cubs. That isn't to say nothing can go wrong for them this year. Last year's team defense ranked as one of the best ever so that is bound to regress, the starting rotation piled on a lot of extra innings from the post season, and the bullpen won't be as dominant without Aroldis Chapman. Still, the Cubs are as perfect of a baseball team as you're ever going to find. It honestly feels like a team constructed through franchise mode from a video game. That's how easy roster building has become for 2020 President elect Theo Epstein. The Cubs are so ridiculously well set up for both the present and the future that it's time to start guessing how many rings this group will end up with.

Oh how the tides have turned in the NL Central. For the past century the St. Louis Cardinals have been to the Cubs what a poor man's version of the Yankees were to the Red Sox for all those years. Now that there's no end in sight for this expected run of Chicago dominance the Cardinals will have to adjust to the reality of competing for the NL wild card for the foreseeable future. The Cardinals spring got off to a terrible start when they lost baseball's top pitching prospect to Tommy John surgery. It's unfortunate the Cubs aren't opening their season at home but I expect the St. Louis crowd to be fired up Sunday night. Their bid to dethrone the Cubs as division champs will begin with their new ace of the rotation Carlos Martinez. It will be the first Opening Day start for the 25-year-old. In 2016 he won 16 games with a 3.04 ERA.

Wake Up With Bryce Harper Hitting 2 Home Runs On Opening Day 2013

On Opening Day in 2013 the future of the Washington Nationals was as bright as its ever been. While the prior season ended in a five game division series loss to the Cardinals (in which Stephen Strasburg did not pitch due to an innings limit) it marked the franchise's first ever postseason appearance. Additionally Bryce Harper won Rookie of the Year at just 19 years old and the team had him under club control for six more years. Fast forward to the video above where Bryce began his age 20 season with not one but two consecutive homers to open the season. That day Strasburg pitched seven shutout innings and the question around baseball became not if the Nationals would win a World Series, but rather how soon it would be until they did.

It has now been four years since that Opening Day and the Nationals have zero playoff series wins. As for Harper, well, he's had an interesting ride. He got hurt in 2013, underperformed (and got hurt again) in 2014, and then had the best offensive season since Barry Bonds in 2015. In between he did his part for the Nats in the 2014 playoffs when he hit three home runs in four games before the team fell to the "even year" Giants. The key to his 2015 Bonds impersonation was an increased walk rate thanks to a much better understanding of the strike zone. 

He got off to a similar start in 2016 and was so good that the Cubs wanted nothing to do with him in a weekend series in early May. Then it just...stopped. Harper was terrible and made nothing but weak contact from that point on. There are many theories as to what happened. Some say it's proof he's overrated but he most likely explanation is that he was hurt. Not hurt enough to require a disabled list stint, but hurt enough to affect his swing. Now with just two years left until free agency he has a major opportunity to quiet the critics starting Monday. In four career Opening Day games Bryce has four home runs.

Wake Up With Mookie Betts Hitting Three Home Runs Against The Diamondbacks

In 2016 Markus Lynn Betts became the first player since Albert Pujols in 2006 to record multiple 3 homer games in the same year. Mookie's first hat trick came back on May 31st against the Orioles, which was part of a two game stretch where Betts hit five long balls. The second time was from the video above on August 14th against the Diamondbacks. This was just a few days after he made the move from leadoff to the middle of the order. Since Xander Bogaerts was in the middle of a second half slump this is when Mookie established himself as the best young player on the Red Sox and a legit MVP contender.

Betts finished the year with 31 homers, nearly doubling his 2015 total of 18. One concern moving forward would be his 2016 home run to fly ball ratio of 10.5% was much higher than his rates from the previous two years (6.1%, 6.5%). This may mean he was getting a little lucky with some fly balls that were leaving the park, but it could also just be the contributed development of a young hitter. Mookie contributes in so many other areas of the game (.318 batting average, 26 stolen bases, league leader in defensive runs saved)  that even if his homer output slips to the mid 20s he'll still be in the conversation as the second best position player in baseball. 

Marcus Stroman Is The Story Of The 2017 World Baseball Classic

Entering the semi final round of the 2017 World Baseball Classic I was lukewarm on Team USA's starting pitchers that were lined up for the final two games. On the one hand I respect the hell out of any Major League player representing their country, particularly when many of the game's best players chose not to. But on the other hand I want the WBC to become a legit thing, and it didn't feel like that could happen until guys better than Tanner Roark and Marcus Stroman were pitching our country's biggest games in the history of the tournament. As it turns out Roark and Stroman were exactly what Team USA needed. They gave a shit about winning this thing and in doing so will help lead to more star players participating come 2021.

Not to overlook Roark's impressive performance against Japan from Tuesday night, but the real story here is Stroman. In Wednesday night's championship game he dominated an undefeated Puerto Rican team led by Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, Javy Baez, and others. As a team they were batting .326 entering the game and had scored four first inning runs off Stroman when they faced him last week. The Blue Jays ace (?) responded with six shutout innings of one run ball while allowing just one walk and striking out three. Go figure that a pitcher who plays his home games in Canada and has a Puerto Rican mother was Team USA's best player that night. In typical Stroman fashion 12 of his 18 outs came via the ground ball. In 2016 he led all qualified starting pitchers with a 60.1% ground ball rate.

Last year was supposed to be Stroman's big breakout, and in some ways it was. In his first full season following a torn ACL Stroman pitched 204 innings and ranked seventh in the American League in FIP. Unfortunately those numbers also came with a 4.37 ERA and more hits allowed than innings pitched. On the bright side he had a much better second half (3.42 ERA with a 23% strikeout rate) than first half (5.33 ERA with a 16% strikeout rate). Stroman now enters 2017 riding a hot second half in 2016 with a career defining WBC performance added to his resume. Already an elite ground ball pitcher Stroman also possesses great command and is one of the most expressive (meaning fun) players in the game. Due to his performance against Puerto Rico and how seriously he took the game, I'll be rooting for him this year. Even as a Red Sox fan. 

Red Sox Thoughts Heading Into 2017

We are now just 11 days away from the BOSTON RED SOX PLAYING IN A REGULAR SEASON GAME THAT COUNTS!!! There are three games on Sunday April 2nd but the Sox, along with most of baseball, open the season a day later on Monday April 3rd (at 2:05 against the Pirates). The WBC is officially over so we now have a week and a half of meaningless spring training games before getting to Opening Day. With that mind here are some thoughts on the Sox entering 2017:

--The biggest baseball story in Boston right now is the status of David Price's elbow. You can be upset with him for last season's ERA, the playoff struggles, and his bizarre handling of the Boston media - but the Red Sox are a better team with him than without him. In 2016 he posted the second highest ERA of his career, and his highest since his rookie season. Aside from being an obvious bounce back candidate losing Price could be a blow to the Sox because of all the innings he ate up last year - innings that may now go to Henry Owens if another staff member goes down. Ultimately if Price misses a few weeks the Sox are still in the AL East driver's seat. But if he ends up needing Tommy John we are in trouble. Then you look at the fact that he has (gulp) six more years left on his contract and this situation could go south quickly. Stay tuned.

--For some reason there is this track record of big name players coming to Boston, sucking early on and bottoming out with the fan base, and then rebounding back to all star level performances. We've seen it happen with Josh Beckett, John Lackey, Rick Porcello, and Hanley Ramirez. So far this spring it looks like Pablo Sandoval will become the next of this group. After a disastrous 2015 Sandoval was somehow even worse in 2016, showing up out of shape and playing in just three games before requiring season ending shoulder surgery. It turns out that this was the best thing that could've happened to him. He came to camp in shape this year and has a real chance to get back in the good graces of Red Sox fans if he plays well and with the right attitude. The team will never receive full value from the five year, $95 million contract he signed but a .270 batting average with 15-20 homers is a reasonable expectation for him this season. Should the Sox make it to the playoffs the 2012 World Series MVP will bring an experienced postseason bat to a lineup in its first season without the most clutch hitter who ever lived.

--Sandy Leon was great last year. He took over a dumpster fire catching situation for Boston and was everything the team could have asked for. In 78 games he hit .310 with a .369 OBP. The only problem is that it's very easy to see he was playing above his head, as evidenced by the fact he was a career .148 hitter entering last season. But Leon played so well that he has the right to the starting job entering 2017 despite many expecting him to lose it by Memorial Day. Best case scenario he hits well again and everything is fine. Worst case scenario the Sox have two solid replacements in Chrisain Vazquez and Blake Swihart. 

--Craig Kimbrel had a weird season in 2016. He got off to a slow start and he ended poorly, but in-between was as lights out as he's ever been. When he was on last year he was ON. His 14.1 K/9 were his most since 2012. This suggests he hasn't lost his "stuff" but what he may be losing is his control. At first glance his 5.1 BB/9 from his first year in Boston is an alarmingly high number. An optimist would say that most of these free passes came during his meltdowns, and that the real Kimbrel is who we saw from May through August. A pessimist would point out that the walks have been on a steady rise since he allowed just 2.0 per nine back in 2012. As noted with Sandoval sometimes stars struggle with their first taste of Boston. Thus Kimbrel should be expected to regain his status as one of the top five closers in baseball this year, but if he gets off to another slow start and the walks don't improve it could be time to hit the panic button.

--Over the past six seasons Hanley Ramirez has played in more than 128 games just twice. Since he was able to stay healthy for most of 2016 there is a sense that we can once again pencil him in for 150 games this year. We're only in Spring Training and already Hanley is dealing with a shoulder injury. It hasn't been bad enough to where he needs to be shut down but it has prevented him from playing first base for most of March. That's not the end of the world, because he is going to primarily DH this season and only play first against lefties, but it's certainly not ideal. The injury hasn't slowed down his hitting but if he's playing at anything less than 100% all it takes is one aggravation to turn this into a multi week DL stint. Since the news of his shoulder broke the same time as Price's elbow the story has been somewhat overlooked. Simply put the offense cannot afford to be missing Hanley for an extended period of time. His health is a legitimate concern and will be all summer.

--We are now just a little over a week away from 2017 regular season baseball yet there doesn't seem to be much hype surrounding the Red Sox in Boston. Reasons for this might include the disappointing ending to the 2016 season, the Patriots' free agency moves stealing sports headlines, and how cold it's been in the city. I just hope fans realize we are at the start of a two or three year championship window. Since taking over at the end of 2015 Dave Dombrowski has been extremely aggressive in trading away prospects for proven major leaguers in Kimbrel, Pomeranz, and Sale. If the Sox win a World Series within the next few years then it'll all be worth it. But there's a chance things don't work out and the team could be left with a lot of big contracts and without the cheap, young talent necessary to supplement the roster. 2017 was supposed to feature a three headed starting pitching monster (and it still might) but the Price injury should remind fans how fragile championship windows can be. The moral? Don't take this season for granted.