2021 Red Sox Preview: Jarren Duran

 Background:

Boston's seventh-round pick from 2018, Duran wasn't overly hyped before making his minor league debut. However, in his first 67 games of pro ball, the lefty swinging speedster hit .357/.394/.516 and immediately caught the eye of Red Sox prospect analysts. He followed that up with a .303 average and 46 stolen bases in just 132 games in 2019. Though he advanced to Double-A in the second half of the year, his hitting worsened against better competition and there wasn't much power to be shown.

2020:

Entering spring training of 2020, Duran was working with notable swing guru Doug Lata to become a better all-around hitter. (Lata is an independent swing coach who has helped turn around the careers of Justin Turner and others by preaching a more fly ball-centric approach). For his entire life Duran's swing had been designed to take advantage of his speed by creating a flat bat path to produce grounders and line drives.

However, by lowering his hands in his stance, Duran is now able to turn on inside pitches with authority while still giving himself a clear swing path with two strikes. While there will likely be an increase in his strikeout rate once we start keeping season-long stats again, it'll hopefully be coupled with an increased number of hard-hit balls.

https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1301019774332395521?s=20

^Click to see how his swing has changed from 2019 to 2020.

Duran reportedly showed off his newfound power at the alternate training site last summer. He then got some additional experience by playing Winter Ball in Puerto Rico this offseason. Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom notes that throughout 2020, Duran made strides hitting wise without losing any of his game-changing speed.

Contract Situation:

Duran has yet to make his MLB debut and will be under club control for six or seven years depending on when he arrives to Boston.

2021 And Beyond:

While Duran's skill changes are notable, he still hasn't proven himself in the upper minors. So while Alex Cora has already said that Duran will see a lot of action with the big league team this spring, it's a near certainty that he begins 2021 in Triple-A.

A second baseman in his amateur playing days, Duran was drafted by the Sox as an outfielder. His plus-plus speed gives him the profile of a future big league center fielder, though he's still working on his route efficiency on fly balls. Having turned 24 years old last year, Duran seems ready maturity wise for his first taste of the big leagues in 2021. I'm anticipating a mid-summer arrival to Fenway Park.

2021 Red Sox Preview: Chris Sale

 

Background:

Trading for Chris Sale entering the 2017 season was one of Dave Dombrowski's "get us over the hump" moves that ultimately did in fact get the Sox over the hump. (The other moves being signing David Price, trading for Craig Kimbrel, and then signing JD Martinez). While Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech were tough to part with, Boston fans can live with the results of the trade no matter how their careers pan out. The team won the World Series and Sale was a big reason why. Just like with the Hanley Ramirez/Josh Beckett/Mike Lowell swap from back in the day, winning is all that matters.

Sale's first season and a half in a Red Sox uniform was utterly electric. The organization finally found a starter with the ace mentality that was missing ever since the bungled Jon Lester extension conversations. I mean, in his first start with the Sox on a frigid April night, Sale wasn't wearing anything under his jersey. The cold weather didn't phase him. He just wanted to compete and win - a perfect fit with his new city.

His first campaign with the Red Sox was his best, as Sale struck out a whopping 308 batters in 214 1/3 innings, winning 17 games and registering a 2.90 ERA. He finished second in the American League Cy Young voting before finishing in fourth the following year.

Yet as promising as things started out, the elbow issues that analysts predicted would happen to Sale finally arrived. The southpaw finally underwent Tommy John surgery last spring.

2020:

As much as Sale getting hurt sucks, there really was never a better season for it to happen. Not only were the Red Sox awful in 2020, but the shortened season meant that he was able to begin rehab without missing actual games. By all reports things have gone pretty smoothly, minus some neck stiffness around the holidays. Of course, it's far better for him to have suffered a setback due to a neck issue than any lingering elbow pain.

Contract Situation:

Oy. Set to become a free agent after 2019, Dombrowski signed Sale to a five-year, $145 million extension before the season started. He most certainly earned this contract, but the timing of the deal was brutal as his injury issues immediately worsened, leading to the surgery last year. There's no doubt that the Sale extension plus Nathan Eovaldi's contract led the franchise on a path to the Mookie Betts trade, but that's a topic for another day. Set to turn 32 in March, Sale is under contract through 2024.

2021 And Beyond:

Currently, Sale is technically on the 60-day IL and the Sox don't expect him back until late-May or early-June. We really won't have an exact idea until we get closer, and by all reports the team is going to play things extra cautiously with him. Expectations should be tempered early on with an eye on him returning to SP1 status to begin '22.

2021 Red Sox Preview: Alex Verdugo

 Background:

Alex Verdugo entered the 2019 season ranked as the #35, #35, and #19 prospect across the big three national ranking sites. He then went on to produce 3.2 WAR in only 106 games on a stacked Dodgers team, and likely would've had a much bigger season if not for some late-year back trouble.

Already a bit controversial both due to his intense play and a questionable off-the-field incident that won't be rehashed here, "Dugie" then became the centerpiece of the Mookie Betts trade, casting monstrous expectations on him that he never deserved.

2020:

Yet in a year when the team played lifeless, objectively bad baseball, Verdugo continuously provided a spark with his infectious energy and enthusiasm. This endeared him to Red Sox fans who were still paying attention, as did his .308 average with six homers, four steals, and an .844 OPS in just 53 games.

Verdugo is unlikely to ever be a mega star, which is why anyone expecting him to "replace" Betts never understood the trade in the first place. Set to turn 25 in May, Verdugo does everything well. As evidenced by the stats above he can hit for average, provide some pop, steal some bases, and play strong defense in Fenway's spacious right field.

His batted-ball numbers are weak as Verdugo doesn't make consistently hard contact. Instead, he's a hitter who would've been more revered in the 70s and 80s, spraying line drives all over the field and "finding the holes." It's a natural approach that isn't influenced by today's buzz terms like exit velocity and launch angle. Verdugo can still turn on pitches with authority when needed, though. 

Contract Situation:

Verdugo is earning just $575,000 this year and won't be eligible for arbitration until 2022. He becomes a free agent following the 2024 season.

2021 And Beyond:

Presently, Verdugo is the favorite to be the team's everyday leadoff hitter. It would be maddening for Alex Cora to platoon his still-developing bat, especially because his career OPS against lefties (.788) isn't far off from his number against RHPs (.810). 

Defensively, Verdugo is an asset. He can handle right field in Fenway but with Jackie Bradley Jr. looking unlikely to return he might be needed in center field on occasion. Part of Chaim Bloom's offseason plan has seemingly been to acquire versatile players who can be used in a variety of different positions depending on the opposing pitcher, ballpark, lineup, etc. If Dugie can cement himself atop the lineup, the added defensive versatility has the potential to make him an All-Star.

2021 Red Sox Preview: Eduardo Rodriguez

Background:

Ever since coming over in the 2014 Andrew Miller trade, Rodriguez has both dazzled and frustrated Red Sox fans. A perennial strike zone nibbler, E-Rod began striking out more than a batter per inning in the 2017 season. However, it came with the caveat of not pitching deep into games. While Rodriguez wasn't as bad as Dice-K or Drew Pomeranz in this regard, it was aggravating nonetheless. I often wondered if he would be better deployed as a multi-inning weapon out of the bullpen.

Then 2019 happened. Particularly in the second half, Rodriguez shed his "nibbler" reputation by pounding the strike zone more often, which led to more contact but also deeper starts. The strikeout rate lowered but this was by design. For the first time in his career E-Rod showed consistency at the major league level, becoming a 200-IP, 200-K starter. He made 21 starts of at least six innings, led baseball with 34 starts total, and had a 2.95 ERA in the second. 2019 didn't go the way any Red Sox fan expected it to, but Rodriguez's emergence was something to latch onto. 

2020:

Sure, 2020 didn't go the way any Sox fan wanted it to, but this time things were particularly rough on Eddie. He was ultimately diagnosed with myocarditis (a heart condition) following a bout with COVID-19. He missed the entire season.

Contract Situation:

Rodriguez is a free agent following the 2021 campaign. Both sides should seemingly be interested in a new deal at year's end, though it makes sense for E-Rod to play the season out after his condition last summer.

2021 And Beyond:

The 27-year-old has zero restrictions entering spring training and is being treated like any other starting pitcher in camp. This is fantastic news, as Rodriguez's situation is a reminder of the seriousness of the pandemic. As for his performance, Boston would be thrilled to see him continue pitching deep into starts. Even if he isn't a 200-inning guy again, fully ridding himself of always trying to get batters to chase would be seen as a positive. He's needed for this team to make any sort of playoff push, even after Chris Sale returns. Rodriguez will likely be named the team's Opening Day starter on April 1st.

2021 Red Sox Preview: Nathan Eovaldi

 Background:

It isn't Nathan Eovaldi's fault that Dave Dombrowski handed him a four-year, $68 million contract following the 2018 championship. As hard as it is to look at that deal now and not say to yourself "fuck", the fact is it's in the past. Moreover, as far as 2021 goes, the Sox need Eovaldi to recapture the form he showed during the Fall of '18. A closer look at his performance last summer shows there are reasons to be optimistic. 

2020:

The first year of Eovaldi's contract was an outright disaster. He struggled with both injuries and ineffectiveness en route to a 5.99 ERA in 2019. He spent the middle part of the year pitching out of the bullpen, though he made it no secret that he preferred starting.

Amid the total disaster that was the 2020 Red Sox season, Eovaldi was a rare bright spot for Boston. His overall numbers look fine - a 3.72 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and a 52:7 K:BB ratio in 48 1/3 innings (nine starts). However, a massive chunk of the runs he gave up came in a single start in Yankee Stadium. Remove his outing from August 15th and Eovaldi's season-long ERA sits at an exciting 2.51.

Additionally, Eovaldi closed the season on a tear, posting a 25:2 K:BB ratio and allowing just two earned runs over his final 21 innings (four starts). There are also reasons to believe this production can last, as Eovaldi noticeably increased the usage of his cutter while relying less on his four-seamer. His 3.5% walk rate ranked within the 98th percentile of the league for the season.

Contract Situation:

Eovaldi has two years and $34 million remaining on his contract. While ugly, Boston needs him to pitch plenty of above-average innings this season.

2021 And Beyond:

As alluded to already, Eovaldi is going to need to be a big part of any success the Red Sox are going to have in 2021. While he ideally profiles as a No. 3 or 4 starter, the 31-year-old could once again pitch on Opening Day. This depends on the health of Eduardo Rodriguez, who is recovering from a heart issue related to COVID-19.We also know Chris Sale won't be back until the middle of the summer.

As promising and his 2020 season turned out to be, Eovaldi has had flashes like that before but has never shown any consistency throughout his career. History suggests he'll ride some good waves and not-so-good waves at various points throughout the upcoming season.

2021 Red Sox Preview: JD Martinez

 

Background:

Heading into 2017 the Red Sox underestimated the importance of having a middle-of-the-order slugger who helps make everyone around him better. This was the first year in a post-David Ortiz era. While the 2017 team was good, it was clear they were missing something.

This led to a five-year, $110 million contract in free agency for JD Martinez, who became an integral part of the championship roster in 2018. Martinez totaled a whopping 43 homers and 130 RBI to finish fourth in the American League MVP voting. It was one of the best seasons for a right-handed power hitter in Red Sox history. JDM's 173 OPS+ (meaning he was 73% better than league average) was reminiscent of Manny Ramirez's Boston tenure. For comparison, Manny only topped that number once while with the Red Sox, though he obviously kept the production going for a much longer sample size.

2020:

Martinez was once again great in 2019, which is why his struggles last summer were borderline shocking. The 33-year-old declined in basically every meaningful offensive category, including both surface level and his expected stats. As several other major league hitters have blamed, the lack of in-game video replay is being deemed the main culprit here. JDM is such a cerebral hitter that not being able to work on his stance and pitch recognition mid-game could've had an effect.

Still, the sudden decline for an aging DH is jarring. Whereas his Baseball Savant page used to be covered in blood red, the 2020 percentile rankings are a disaster:

The biggest reason for optimism moving forward is that Martinez's plate discipline skills (referencing how often he walks and strikes out) weren't nearly as out of place as the rest of his profile. I'd be more concerned if he had suddenly become a free swinger struggling to make contact.

Contract Situation:

JDM is under contract for each of the next two seasons at a rate of $19.35 million per season, though he once again has an opt out after this year. As of now, Red Sox fans should be less concerned with whether or not he might opt out than whether or not he can revert to his 2018-19 levels of production.

2021 And Beyond:

A full-time designated hitter at this point, Martinez will likely hit either second or fourth this season, depending on how Alex Cora wants to utilize him and Devers. There isn't a lot of statistical analysis that goes into what happened in 2020. He was downright bad. Maybe it was a two-month blip or maybe the in-game video is really that important. Regardless of what went wrong, it's no secret that the Sox need him to bounce back and lengthen a lineup that'll once again be without Mookie Betts.

2021 Red Sox Preview: Xander Bogaerts

Background:

Set to enter his eighth full season in Boston, Xander Bogaerts is the unofficial captain of the Red Sox. Ever since his late-season arrival in 2013, the homegrown infielder has become a consistent presence both in the field and in the middle of the lineup. It feels as if we've grown use to Bogaerts holding things down at shortstop, but this was once a position that mostly resembled a revolving door for the franchise. 

Following the 2004 midseason trade of Nomar Garciaparra, we witnessed a litany of players pass through this position, often for just a season or two. Yet somewhat incredibly, Bogaerts has already played the fifth most games all time as the shortstop of the Boston Red Sox. He's on pace to become the club's all-time leader midway through the 2022 campaign.

2020:

Offensively, Bogaerts broke out for good in 2018. Up until then he was mostly viewed as someone who his for average and some occasional pop. From 2014-17 he hit 12, 7, 21, and 10 homers respectively. But it all clicked with the arrival of manager Alex Cora in '18, who encouraged X to be more aggressive on pitches down the middle of the plate. Whereas the Red Sox used to be known for taking pitches and driving up pitches counts, the most recent World Series title was won by an aggressive approach at middle-middle offerings. His best season was 2019, totaling 33 homers, 117 RBI, 110 runs, a .309 BA, and a .939 OPS.

Anyways, it was more of the same for Bogaerts last summer. He hit an even .300 with a rock-solid .866 OPS and 11 homers in 56 games. He even went a perfect 8-for-8 in stolen base attempts. In a year where so much went wrong for Boston, Bogaerts was his consistently great self.

Contract Situation:

Prior to 2019 Bogaerts signed a (somewhat team-friendly) six-year, $120 million extension that kicked in this past summer. This contract takes him through the 2026 season, though he has an opt out after 2022.

2021 And Beyond:

The potential opt out is going to be an interesting situation for Boston. I discussed the reliability he has given us as a shortstop during his tenure with the franchise. While Bogaerts is able to make all the plays hit in his vicinity with relative ease, he doesn't have high-end range and is therefore pretty average defensively. There are some rumors that the Sox are going hard after Trevor Story next offseason, which would bring into question the future defensive homes of both Bogaerts and Rafael Devers. Would pursuing Story be enough of a turn off for Bogaerts that he'd opt out and leave? It's tough to say.

As for 2021, X is projected to hit either fourth or fifth as of now. While he isn't a Statcast darling by any means, there's no reason to expect his production to suffer in the slightest. 

2021 Red Sox Preview: Rafael Devers

Background:

There's a case to be made that Devers is the highest upside hitter the Red Sox have home grown since Nomar Garciappara in the late-90s. As a 22-year-old in 2019, Devers got off to a slow start at the plate. He was famously held without a homer through May 2nd, though he was hitting .294 with a 99 wRC+ up until that point. 

Over his final 575 plate appearances the wunderkind slashed .314/.357/.593 with a staggering 32 homers, 112 runs scored, and 105 RBI. It was a monstrous finish to a season that established him as one of baseball's best young stars. The most encouraging sign was the reduction in strikeout rate. In 2018 Devers struck out in 24.7% of his plate appearances. He lowered that clip to 17.0% in 2019. His average exit velocity ranked within the top-5% of big league hitters. Doing damage without striking out all that much is quite the recipe for success.

2020:

Devers once again got off to a slow start in 2020, posting a paltry .543 OPS over his first 14 games. Once again, he rebounded, putting together an .868 OPS over his final 41 contests. The 23-year-old actually increased his average exit velocity last summer, showing that he can still make pitchers pay when he makes contact. The concern is that over the course of the season he struck out more than ever.

The above table, courtesy of FanGraphs, highlights Devers' swing tendencies throughout his career. His O-Swing is how often he chases pitches outside the zone. His O-Contact is how often he connects on these pitches he swings at. 

As evidenced above, Devers has chased more and more each year he's been in the majors. Worse, it appears as if he made an unsustainable amount of contact on pitches outside the zone in his breakout 2019, which led to the reduction in strikeout rate. There's no doubt that he still crushed the ball when he made contact last year, but he'll need to stop chasing so often if he wants to be among the game's elite hitters.

Contract Situation:

Devers will earn $4.575 million in 2021 in his first year of arbitration. He's under team control for a total of three more seasons. There's no reason the Red Sox shouldn't begin discussing a possible extension with him.

2021 And Beyond:

Devers enters this season as a core member of the Red Sox, both in the present and for the future. While his defense remains shaky (career-worst .891 fielding percentage in 2020) there hasn't yet been strong talk of moving him off third. He was actually a plus defender in 2019, though that was his only plus season in the field.

He'll likely hit second or fourth in the lineup depending on Alex Cora's preference. Still just 24 years old, this season is a big one for Devers. He has shown he has a floor of being a good hitter, but Sox fans would love to see him return to his 2019 production and re-enter that elite tier.