2021 Red Sox Preview: Nathan Eovaldi

 Background:

It isn't Nathan Eovaldi's fault that Dave Dombrowski handed him a four-year, $68 million contract following the 2018 championship. As hard as it is to look at that deal now and not say to yourself "fuck", the fact is it's in the past. Moreover, as far as 2021 goes, the Sox need Eovaldi to recapture the form he showed during the Fall of '18. A closer look at his performance last summer shows there are reasons to be optimistic. 

2020:

The first year of Eovaldi's contract was an outright disaster. He struggled with both injuries and ineffectiveness en route to a 5.99 ERA in 2019. He spent the middle part of the year pitching out of the bullpen, though he made it no secret that he preferred starting.

Amid the total disaster that was the 2020 Red Sox season, Eovaldi was a rare bright spot for Boston. His overall numbers look fine - a 3.72 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and a 52:7 K:BB ratio in 48 1/3 innings (nine starts). However, a massive chunk of the runs he gave up came in a single start in Yankee Stadium. Remove his outing from August 15th and Eovaldi's season-long ERA sits at an exciting 2.51.

Additionally, Eovaldi closed the season on a tear, posting a 25:2 K:BB ratio and allowing just two earned runs over his final 21 innings (four starts). There are also reasons to believe this production can last, as Eovaldi noticeably increased the usage of his cutter while relying less on his four-seamer. His 3.5% walk rate ranked within the 98th percentile of the league for the season.

Contract Situation:

Eovaldi has two years and $34 million remaining on his contract. While ugly, Boston needs him to pitch plenty of above-average innings this season.

2021 And Beyond:

As alluded to already, Eovaldi is going to need to be a big part of any success the Red Sox are going to have in 2021. While he ideally profiles as a No. 3 or 4 starter, the 31-year-old could once again pitch on Opening Day. This depends on the health of Eduardo Rodriguez, who is recovering from a heart issue related to COVID-19.We also know Chris Sale won't be back until the middle of the summer.

As promising and his 2020 season turned out to be, Eovaldi has had flashes like that before but has never shown any consistency throughout his career. History suggests he'll ride some good waves and not-so-good waves at various points throughout the upcoming season.