2021 Red Sox Preview: JD Martinez

 

Background:

Heading into 2017 the Red Sox underestimated the importance of having a middle-of-the-order slugger who helps make everyone around him better. This was the first year in a post-David Ortiz era. While the 2017 team was good, it was clear they were missing something.

This led to a five-year, $110 million contract in free agency for JD Martinez, who became an integral part of the championship roster in 2018. Martinez totaled a whopping 43 homers and 130 RBI to finish fourth in the American League MVP voting. It was one of the best seasons for a right-handed power hitter in Red Sox history. JDM's 173 OPS+ (meaning he was 73% better than league average) was reminiscent of Manny Ramirez's Boston tenure. For comparison, Manny only topped that number once while with the Red Sox, though he obviously kept the production going for a much longer sample size.

2020:

Martinez was once again great in 2019, which is why his struggles last summer were borderline shocking. The 33-year-old declined in basically every meaningful offensive category, including both surface level and his expected stats. As several other major league hitters have blamed, the lack of in-game video replay is being deemed the main culprit here. JDM is such a cerebral hitter that not being able to work on his stance and pitch recognition mid-game could've had an effect.

Still, the sudden decline for an aging DH is jarring. Whereas his Baseball Savant page used to be covered in blood red, the 2020 percentile rankings are a disaster:

The biggest reason for optimism moving forward is that Martinez's plate discipline skills (referencing how often he walks and strikes out) weren't nearly as out of place as the rest of his profile. I'd be more concerned if he had suddenly become a free swinger struggling to make contact.

Contract Situation:

JDM is under contract for each of the next two seasons at a rate of $19.35 million per season, though he once again has an opt out after this year. As of now, Red Sox fans should be less concerned with whether or not he might opt out than whether or not he can revert to his 2018-19 levels of production.

2021 And Beyond:

A full-time designated hitter at this point, Martinez will likely hit either second or fourth this season, depending on how Alex Cora wants to utilize him and Devers. There isn't a lot of statistical analysis that goes into what happened in 2020. He was downright bad. Maybe it was a two-month blip or maybe the in-game video is really that important. Regardless of what went wrong, it's no secret that the Sox need him to bounce back and lengthen a lineup that'll once again be without Mookie Betts.