Background:
There's a case to be made that Devers is the highest upside hitter the Red Sox have home grown since Nomar Garciappara in the late-90s. As a 22-year-old in 2019, Devers got off to a slow start at the plate. He was famously held without a homer through May 2nd, though he was hitting .294 with a 99 wRC+ up until that point.
Over his final 575 plate appearances the wunderkind slashed .314/.357/.593 with a staggering 32 homers, 112 runs scored, and 105 RBI. It was a monstrous finish to a season that established him as one of baseball's best young stars. The most encouraging sign was the reduction in strikeout rate. In 2018 Devers struck out in 24.7% of his plate appearances. He lowered that clip to 17.0% in 2019. His average exit velocity ranked within the top-5% of big league hitters. Doing damage without striking out all that much is quite the recipe for success.
2020:
Devers once again got off to a slow start in 2020, posting a paltry .543 OPS over his first 14 games. Once again, he rebounded, putting together an .868 OPS over his final 41 contests. The 23-year-old actually increased his average exit velocity last summer, showing that he can still make pitchers pay when he makes contact. The concern is that over the course of the season he struck out more than ever.
The above table, courtesy of FanGraphs, highlights Devers' swing tendencies throughout his career. His O-Swing is how often he chases pitches outside the zone. His O-Contact is how often he connects on these pitches he swings at.
As evidenced above, Devers has chased more and more each year he's been in the majors. Worse, it appears as if he made an unsustainable amount of contact on pitches outside the zone in his breakout 2019, which led to the reduction in strikeout rate. There's no doubt that he still crushed the ball when he made contact last year, but he'll need to stop chasing so often if he wants to be among the game's elite hitters.
Contract Situation:
Devers will earn $4.575 million in 2021 in his first year of arbitration. He's under team control for a total of three more seasons. There's no reason the Red Sox shouldn't begin discussing a possible extension with him.
2021 And Beyond:
Devers enters this season as a core member of the Red Sox, both in the present and for the future. While his defense remains shaky (career-worst .891 fielding percentage in 2020) there hasn't yet been strong talk of moving him off third. He was actually a plus defender in 2019, though that was his only plus season in the field.
He'll likely hit second or fourth in the lineup depending on Alex Cora's preference. Still just 24 years old, this season is a big one for Devers. He has shown he has a floor of being a good hitter, but Sox fans would love to see him return to his 2019 production and re-enter that elite tier.
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