Cordero has all the tools. He's the type of player who if the only thing you knew about him was watching him take batting practice or observing workouts, you'd think he was a star. Cordero hits the ball HARD. From 2017-2020, among hitters with at least 300 plate appearances, the 26-year-old ranks ninth in average exit velocity. That comes in right between Giancarlo Stanton and Matt Chapman.
The issue is that caveat - the 300 PAs needed to use that stat. That's an absurdly low number for a four-year stretch, and it highlights just how much development time Cordero has missed due to injuries over the years. He has always been raw. Ever since signing out of the Dominican Republic as a teenager in 2011, Cordero has been someone who needed a chance to develop. However, we're now in 2021, and we're still describing Cordero as raw.
2020:
In addition to the power and ability to impact the baseball, Cordero has historically suffered from a lot of swing-and-miss in his game. This led to the most drastic improvement from last summer, which was a massive reduction in his whiff rate. We're dealing with ridiculously small samples, but Cordero whiffed on just 20.2% of his swings last year (compared to 35.7% for his career). If he can maintain that in 2021, he'll have a chance to be a productive big leaguer.
Again, he only played in 16 games with the Royals last summer (after spending the beginning of his career with the Padres). 16 games! Following his inclusion in the Andrew Benintendi trade, he's now on his third organization in three years. The Red Sox obviously see upside in his profile. Anyone with access to Baseball Savant knows that Cordero has a high ceiling. The issue is whether we'll still be talking about his potential 2-3 years from now.
Contract Situation:
Whereas Benintendi is a free agent after 2022, Cordero won't be on the open market until post-2023. Remember, though, that the trade wasn't just about him. The Sox got four additional prospects to continue replenishing their farm system as well.
2021 And Beyond:
Spring Training has been brutal for Cordero. He's still on the COVID-19 injured list and manager Alex Cora recently said he might not be ready for Opening Day. This is a killer for a player who simply needs as much developmental time as he can get.
As for his role once he's ready, Cordero is a lefty hitter who should mostly play left field against right-handers. Until he shows more (any?) consistency as a ballplayer, Cordero is unlikely to be a true everyday player.
A fourth-round pick from 2016, Bobby Dalbec arrived to the Red Sox as a power hitting third baseman (who also pitched!) but also struck out a lot. The full breakout came in 2018 when he launched 32 homers and drove in 109 between High-A and Double-A. During this time he also began showing a trend - as Dalbec gained more experience in each minor league level, he was able to cut down on his strikeouts.
By the end of 2019 Dalbec began transitioning to first base as it was clear he was blocked by Rafael Devers at the big league level. Baseball America ranked him as the 75th best prospect entering 2020.
2020:
Several Red Sox prospects took advantage of the strangeness that was 2020. We've already talked about Jarren Duran overhauling his swing last spring and continuing that transformation at the alternate training site. Dalbec was also able to take advantage of his time in Pawtucket last summer, which eventually led to a big league promotion.
Dalbec raked upon arriving to the majors, hitting eight homers with a .959 OPS in just 23 games. However, a look under the hood reveals some disturbing info. Dalbec posted a .394 BABIP and a .197 expected batting average (per baseball savant). This is a sign that he got really lucky, and it's similar to the hot start we saw from Michael Chavis in '19 (which isn't a good thing).
Contract Situation:
Dalbec didn't play enough in 2020 to exhaust his prospect eligibility. He'll officially be a rookie in 2021.
2021 And Beyond:
Dalbec struck out in a hideous 42.4% of his plate appearances in the majors last summer. He had success when he connected, but it was such a short sample that pitchers barely had the opportunity to begin exposing the holes in his swing. For the 25-year-old to last as a big leaguer he's going to need to continue the trend of reducing his strikeout rate once he gets settled at a higher level.
Defensively, Dalbec is still learning how to play first base. He has talked openly about how he doesn't want to be viewed as a plodding slugger (which he isn't). Manager Alex Cora calls Dalbec a "complete baseball player", highlighting his athleticism running the bases and sound footwork around the bag. He'll open the year as Boston's everyday first baseman and will hit in the bottom third of the batting order.
Adam Ottavino is famous for saying that he would strike out Babe Ruth "every time" if he faced him in this day and age. While that sounds boastful at first, it's probably true. Ruth played well before players started taking better care of their bodies. It's also a given that he never experienced a slider like Ottavino's.
Ever since "AO" broke out in 2013 with the Rockies, he has used a deceptive delivery with a plus-plus slider to keep hitters uncomfortable. Without knowing whether the slider or fastball is coming, hitters can often look foolish against Ottavino. The only downside to this approach is, similar to his new teammate Matt Barnes, there can be a lot of walks.
2020:
Last summer was a disaster for Ottavino. who posted a hideous 5.89 ERA in 18 1/3 innings. Of course, regular readers of TooMuchTuma.Blogspot.com know better than to judge a reliever by their ERA from a shortened season. This is because the 35-year-old had one outing where he allowed six earned runs without recording an out. Yet the abbreviated season meant that he never had the time to recover.
A cerebral pitcher, Ottavino feels like he knows what went wrong:
“I don’t want to give away too many things,” Ottavino said in response to my question. “But multiple shapes of my breaking pitches is the area where I can be elite at. That’s the category I feel is my specialty. Just trying to lean into that and grab a little better control of pitches that break downward, as well as sideways and everything in between… I just want to be a little more diversified.”
Ottavino elaborated, saying that he’d become too enamored with a specific shape on his slider, and as a result, hitters had begun tracking its break. Hence the desire to return to throwing multiple variations of his signature pitch.
To summarize, AO needs to mix in other breaking pitches besides his slider, which hitters have grown used to.
Contract Situation:
Also like Barnes, Ottavino is a free agent after 2021. He was acquired in a trade with the Yankees this offseason as New York aimed to shed payroll. Boston also received a pitching prospect as part of the return.
2021 And Beyond:
We know that Cora hasn't named a closer yet. The options are seemingly Barnes and Ottavino, with Barnes being the presumed favorite as of now. For all the success he has had in late-inning situations, Ottavino hasn't ever been used as a locked-in closer and has just 19 saves in his career. That doesn't really mean anything, of course, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him get some ninth-inning chances. He's one of a handful of pitchers the Sox need to "bounce back" in 2021.
Chaim Bloom has talked a lot about versatility this offseason. Coming from the Rays, this shouldn't be a surprise. But versatility isn't just about having a player who can play multiple positions. It's about having players who can affect the game in a variety of ways - whether it's defensive versatility, hitting lefties well, hitting for power against right-handers, speed, etc. For example, Bloom's signing of Hunter Renfroe brings in a player who mashes lefties while also contributing defensively as a right fielder. Those are two areas he can affect the game.
We'll get to Renfroe eventually. Today we're discussing Enrique Hernandez, who throughout his career has done a lot of things well, but rarely has it all aligned at once. The exception is 2018 when Hernandez posted 3.3 WAR (4-5 is considered All-Star range) en route to a career year. Otherwise, he's been a useful player who hits lefties well, is an elite defender at second base, and also offers the ability to play the outfield well.
2020:
Hernandez's surface level stats aren't ever special and that's certainly the case for his 2020 performance. The 29-year-old hit just .230 with five homers, a .680 OPS, and zero stolen bases last summer. Even in the career year of 2018 he hit .256 with an .806 OPS. Again, on the surface that isn't special. Remember, though, that his value comes from being able to do so many different things either average or above-average.
The highlight of his 2020 came in the playoffs when Hernandez hit a pinch-hit, game-tying homer against the Braves in Game 7 of the NLCS. Hernandez came off the bench in the sixth inning to face - you guessed it - a lefty. Known for being an energetic teammate, Kiké arrives in Boston with plenty of postseason experience due to his time with the Dodgers.
Contract Situation:
The Sox signed Hernandez to a two-year, $14 million option this offseason.
2021 And Beyond:
Hopefully it's obvious by now but expect Hernandez to serve a variety of roles this season. His main responsibilities will be handling second base and hitting high in the order versus lefties. The second base defense is going to be massive as Boston hasn't gotten anything positive out of that position defensively since Dustin Pedroia was fully healthy in 2016-17. Upgrading the infield defense has been one of Alex Cora's early themes in spring training.
We should also expect Hernandez to play all three outfield positions as well as being Xander Bogaerts' backup at shortstop. As for where he'll hit in the order, the team is going to mix and match a lot depending on the opposing pitcher, ballpark, etc. Hernandez should be considered likely to hit third versus lefties, but a lot of the batting order remains to be seen.
The 32-year-old made his MLB debut back in 2011 with the Angels and had several promising seasons before injuries really began piling up. However, Richards has always been good when healthy, as evidenced by his career 3.62 ERA.
Despite the strong results it's fair to wonder if Richards' organizations have ever maximized his talents. He has such strong "stuff" that if a team like the Rays had signed him this offseason, the rest of the baseball world would be wondering how good they're going to make him.
Richards' issue has been health. Incredibly, he hasn't made more than 16 starts in a year since 2015. His brutal health history makes him impossible to rely on for a full season, but he at least stayed healthy during the shortened 2020 campaign (appearing in 14 games, including 10 starts).
2020:
Richards underwent Tommy John surgery in 2018 and while he has more or less "recovered" from it, there's still one hurdle he needs to work through. The aforementioned "stuff" that Richards possesses includes a highly effective fastball-slider combo. The two pitches both possess good spin and work together to keep hitters off balance.
For Richards to reach his full potential, though, he'll need to regain the movement on his two-seam fastball. As good as the fastball-slider combo is, those pitches move in the same direction. If he can pair them with a two-seamer that generates more sinking action, that's how Richards will unlock his full potential. While pitching for the Padres last summer he noted that he didn't yet have that sinking action post-Tommy John.
Contract Situation:
The Red Sox signed Richards to a one-year, $10 million contract this offseason that includes a $10 million club option for 2022.
2021 And Beyond:
The signing was revealing in the sense that Chaim Bloom chose the upside of Richards over a more stable rotation option such as Jake Odorizzi. Perhaps this is a sign that 2021 isn't the all-in year for the Sox some of us thought it would be following the Mookie Betts trade. It seems as if Bloom is taking one more year to lay the foundation for a big winter entering 2022.
Of course, maybe that's me reading too much into things and the front office simply preferred Richards over Odorizzi. Either way, Richards' injury history means we can't rely on him for 30 starts in all likelihood, but a positive outcome for his season would be pitching effectively enough while healthy that we then pick up that '22 club option.
Somehow Matt Barnes is now the longest tenured reliever on the Red Sox. A first-round pick from 2011, Barnes has had a variety of roles within the organization - a top prospect, starter, setup man on a championship club, "fireman" reliever - to name a few. Entering 2021 he might add another to the list - closer.
Barnes is talented. Among qualified relievers he has the fourth highest K/9 over the past three seasons. Only Aroldis Chapman, Edwin Diaz, and Josh Hader have performed better in this category. Yet for all the success he has missing bats, Barnes struggles badly with his control at times. His walk rate has been bottom 10th percentile or worse over the past three years.
2020:
Last season Barnes had another issue - he was getting hit hard. After mainly avoiding hard-hit damage in 2018 and 2019 (at the expense of walks), Barnes was getting shelled in 2020. And he was still walking people. He attributes his struggles to the stop-and-start nature of the shortened season, which affected many other players around the league as well.
Specifically, Barnes noted that the first month of 2020 felt more or less like spring training. If you want to take a positive outlook on Barnes' season, you could buy this narrative. Following the trade that sent Brandon Workman to the Phillies, Boston's new closer posted a 3.38 ERA and converted 9-of-12 save chances. Before the trade he had a 5.59 ERA.
Contract Situation:
Barnes will earn $4.5 million in 2021 before becoming a free agent. There are several more pressing extension possibilities at this time, so expect Barnes to play out his contract this year.
2021 And Beyond:
The last time Alex Cora was manager in 2019 the club went with a "closer-by-committee" approach. Of course, the experiment failed, which has led to Cora saying he wants to name a closer for this season. He hasn't yet, though. Barnes has his warts but he's also the most logical option to handle ninth inning duties. Cora's only decision will be if he sees Barnes more valuable in a setup, "fireman" role.
Something else to consider is that the Sox have greatly overused Barnes in recent years. From 2017-19 he appeared in 70 games twice, and last year he appeared in 24-of-60 contests. Being used as a more traditional closer would theoretically lead to Cora not relying on him too much.
Boston's seventh-round pick from 2018, Duran wasn't overly hyped before making his minor league debut. However, in his first 67 games of pro ball, the lefty swinging speedster hit .357/.394/.516 and immediately caught the eye of Red Sox prospect analysts. He followed that up with a .303 average and 46 stolen bases in just 132 games in 2019. Though he advanced to Double-A in the second half of the year, his hitting worsened against better competition and there wasn't much power to be shown.
2020:
Entering spring training of 2020, Duran was working with notable swing guru Doug Lata to become a better all-around hitter. (Lata is an independent swing coach who has helped turn around the careers of Justin Turner and others by preaching a more fly ball-centric approach). For his entire life Duran's swing had been designed to take advantage of his speed by creating a flat bat path to produce grounders and line drives.
However, by lowering his hands in his stance, Duran is now able to turn on inside pitches with authority while still giving himself a clear swing path with two strikes. While there will likely be an increase in his strikeout rate once we start keeping season-long stats again, it'll hopefully be coupled with an increased number of hard-hit balls.
^Click to see how his swing has changed from 2019 to 2020.
Duran reportedly showed off his newfound power at the alternate training site last summer. He then got some additional experience by playing Winter Ball in Puerto Rico this offseason. Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom notes that throughout 2020, Duran made strides hitting wise without losing any of his game-changing speed.
Contract Situation:
Duran has yet to make his MLB debut and will be under club control for six or seven years depending on when he arrives to Boston.
2021 And Beyond:
While Duran's skill changes are notable, he still hasn't proven himself in the upper minors. So while Alex Cora has already said that Duran will see a lot of action with the big league team this spring, it's a near certainty that he begins 2021 in Triple-A.
A second baseman in his amateur playing days, Duran was drafted by the Sox as an outfielder. His plus-plus speed gives him the profile of a future big league center fielder, though he's still working on his route efficiency on fly balls. Having turned 24 years old last year, Duran seems ready maturity wise for his first taste of the big leagues in 2021. I'm anticipating a mid-summer arrival to Fenway Park.
Trading for Chris Sale entering the 2017 season was one of Dave Dombrowski's "get us over the hump" moves that ultimately did in fact get the Sox over the hump. (The other moves being signing David Price, trading for Craig Kimbrel, and then signing JD Martinez). While Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech were tough to part with, Boston fans can live with the results of the trade no matter how their careers pan out. The team won the World Series and Sale was a big reason why. Just like with the Hanley Ramirez/Josh Beckett/Mike Lowell swap from back in the day, winning is all that matters.
Sale's first season and a half in a Red Sox uniform was utterly electric. The organization finally found a starter with the ace mentality that was missing ever since the bungled Jon Lester extension conversations. I mean, in his first start with the Sox on a frigid April night, Sale wasn't wearing anything under his jersey. The cold weather didn't phase him. He just wanted to compete and win - a perfect fit with his new city.
His first campaign with the Red Sox was his best, as Sale struck out a whopping 308 batters in 214 1/3 innings, winning 17 games and registering a 2.90 ERA. He finished second in the American League Cy Young voting before finishing in fourth the following year.
Yet as promising as things started out, the elbow issues that analysts predicted would happen to Sale finally arrived. The southpaw finally underwent Tommy John surgery last spring.
2020:
As much as Sale getting hurt sucks, there really was never a better season for it to happen. Not only were the Red Sox awful in 2020, but the shortened season meant that he was able to begin rehab without missing actual games. By all reports things have gone pretty smoothly, minus some neck stiffness around the holidays. Of course, it's far better for him to have suffered a setback due to a neck issue than any lingering elbow pain.
Contract Situation:
Oy. Set to become a free agent after 2019, Dombrowski signed Sale to a five-year, $145 million extension before the season started. He most certainly earned this contract, but the timing of the deal was brutal as his injury issues immediately worsened, leading to the surgery last year. There's no doubt that the Sale extension plus Nathan Eovaldi's contract led the franchise on a path to the Mookie Betts trade, but that's a topic for another day. Set to turn 32 in March, Sale is under contract through 2024.
2021 And Beyond:
Currently, Sale is technically on the 60-day IL and the Sox don't expect him back until late-May or early-June. We really won't have an exact idea until we get closer, and by all reports the team is going to play things extra cautiously with him. Expectations should be tempered early on with an eye on him returning to SP1 status to begin '22.
Alex Verdugo entered the 2019 season ranked as the #35, #35, and #19 prospect across the big three national ranking sites. He then went on to produce 3.2 WAR in only 106 games on a stacked Dodgers team, and likely would've had a much bigger season if not for some late-year back trouble.
Already a bit controversial both due to his intense play and a questionable off-the-field incident that won't be rehashed here, "Dugie" then became the centerpiece of the Mookie Betts trade, casting monstrous expectations on him that he never deserved.
2020:
Yet in a year when the team played lifeless, objectively bad baseball, Verdugo continuously provided a spark with his infectious energy and enthusiasm. This endeared him to Red Sox fans who were still paying attention, as did his .308 average with six homers, four steals, and an .844 OPS in just 53 games.
Verdugo is unlikely to ever be a mega star, which is why anyone expecting him to "replace" Betts never understood the trade in the first place. Set to turn 25 in May, Verdugo does everything well. As evidenced by the stats above he can hit for average, provide some pop, steal some bases, and play strong defense in Fenway's spacious right field.
His batted-ball numbers are weak as Verdugo doesn't make consistently hard contact. Instead, he's a hitter who would've been more revered in the 70s and 80s, spraying line drives all over the field and "finding the holes." It's a natural approach that isn't influenced by today's buzz terms like exit velocity and launch angle. Verdugo can still turn on pitches with authority when needed, though.
Contract Situation:
Verdugo is earning just $575,000 this year and won't be eligible for arbitration until 2022. He becomes a free agent following the 2024 season.
2021 And Beyond:
Presently, Verdugo is the favorite to be the team's everyday leadoff hitter. It would be maddening for Alex Cora to platoon his still-developing bat, especially because his career OPS against lefties (.788) isn't far off from his number against RHPs (.810).
Defensively, Verdugo is an asset. He can handle right field in Fenway but with Jackie Bradley Jr. looking unlikely to return he might be needed in center field on occasion. Part of Chaim Bloom's offseason plan has seemingly been to acquire versatile players who can be used in a variety of different positions depending on the opposing pitcher, ballpark, lineup, etc. If Dugie can cement himself atop the lineup, the added defensive versatility has the potential to make him an All-Star.
Ever since coming over in the 2014 Andrew Miller trade, Rodriguez has both dazzled and frustrated Red Sox fans. A perennial strike zone nibbler, E-Rod began striking out more than a batter per inning in the 2017 season. However, it came with the caveat of not pitching deep into games. While Rodriguez wasn't as bad as Dice-K or Drew Pomeranz in this regard, it was aggravating nonetheless. I often wondered if he would be better deployed as a multi-inning weapon out of the bullpen.
Then 2019 happened. Particularly in the second half, Rodriguez shed his "nibbler" reputation by pounding the strike zone more often, which led to more contact but also deeper starts. The strikeout rate lowered but this was by design. For the first time in his career E-Rod showed consistency at the major league level, becoming a 200-IP, 200-K starter. He made 21 starts of at least six innings, led baseball with 34 starts total, and had a 2.95 ERA in the second. 2019 didn't go the way any Red Sox fan expected it to, but Rodriguez's emergence was something to latch onto.
2020:
Sure, 2020 didn't go the way any Sox fan wanted it to, but this time things were particularly rough on Eddie. He was ultimately diagnosed with myocarditis (a heart condition) following a bout with COVID-19. He missed the entire season.
Contract Situation:
Rodriguez is a free agent following the 2021 campaign. Both sides should seemingly be interested in a new deal at year's end, though it makes sense for E-Rod to play the season out after his condition last summer.
2021 And Beyond:
The 27-year-old has zero restrictions entering spring training and is being treated like any other starting pitcher in camp. This is fantastic news, as Rodriguez's situation is a reminder of the seriousness of the pandemic. As for his performance, Boston would be thrilled to see him continue pitching deep into starts. Even if he isn't a 200-inning guy again, fully ridding himself of always trying to get batters to chase would be seen as a positive. He's needed for this team to make any sort of playoff push, even after Chris Sale returns. Rodriguez will likely be named the team's Opening Day starter on April 1st.
It isn't Nathan Eovaldi's fault that Dave Dombrowski handed him a four-year, $68 million contract following the 2018 championship. As hard as it is to look at that deal now and not say to yourself "fuck", the fact is it's in the past. Moreover, as far as 2021 goes, the Sox need Eovaldi to recapture the form he showed during the Fall of '18. A closer look at his performance last summer shows there are reasons to be optimistic.
2020:
The first year of Eovaldi's contract was an outright disaster. He struggled with both injuries and ineffectiveness en route to a 5.99 ERA in 2019. He spent the middle part of the year pitching out of the bullpen, though he made it no secret that he preferred starting.
Amid the total disaster that was the 2020 Red Sox season, Eovaldi was a rare bright spot for Boston. His overall numbers look fine - a 3.72 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and a 52:7 K:BB ratio in 48 1/3 innings (nine starts). However, a massive chunk of the runs he gave up came in a single start in Yankee Stadium. Remove his outing from August 15th and Eovaldi's season-long ERA sits at an exciting 2.51.
Additionally, Eovaldi closed the season on a tear, posting a 25:2 K:BB ratio and allowing just two earned runs over his final 21 innings (four starts). There are also reasons to believe this production can last, as Eovaldi noticeably increased the usage of his cutter while relying less on his four-seamer. His 3.5% walk rate ranked within the 98th percentile of the league for the season.
Contract Situation:
Eovaldi has two years and $34 million remaining on his contract. While ugly, Boston needs him to pitch plenty of above-average innings this season.
2021 And Beyond:
As alluded to already, Eovaldi is going to need to be a big part of any success the Red Sox are going to have in 2021. While he ideally profiles as a No. 3 or 4 starter, the 31-year-old could once again pitch on Opening Day. This depends on the health of Eduardo Rodriguez, who is recovering from a heart issue related to COVID-19.We also know Chris Sale won't be back until the middle of the summer.
As promising and his 2020 season turned out to be, Eovaldi has had flashes like that before but has never shown any consistency throughout his career. History suggests he'll ride some good waves and not-so-good waves at various points throughout the upcoming season.
Heading into 2017 the Red Sox underestimated the importance of having a middle-of-the-order slugger who helps make everyone around him better. This was the first year in a post-David Ortiz era. While the 2017 team was good, it was clear they were missing something.
This led to a five-year, $110 million contract in free agency for JD Martinez, who became an integral part of the championship roster in 2018. Martinez totaled a whopping 43 homers and 130 RBI to finish fourth in the American League MVP voting. It was one of the best seasons for a right-handed power hitter in Red Sox history. JDM's 173 OPS+ (meaning he was 73% better than league average) was reminiscent of Manny Ramirez's Boston tenure. For comparison, Manny only topped that number once while with the Red Sox, though he obviously kept the production going for a much longer sample size.
2020:
Martinez was once again great in 2019, which is why his struggles last summer were borderline shocking. The 33-year-old declined in basically every meaningful offensive category, including both surface level and his expected stats. As several other major league hitters have blamed, the lack of in-game video replay is being deemed the main culprit here. JDM is such a cerebral hitter that not being able to work on his stance and pitch recognition mid-game could've had an effect.
Still, the sudden decline for an aging DH is jarring. Whereas his Baseball Savant page used to be covered in blood red, the 2020 percentile rankings are a disaster:
The biggest reason for optimism moving forward is that Martinez's plate discipline skills (referencing how often he walks and strikes out) weren't nearly as out of place as the rest of his profile. I'd be more concerned if he had suddenly become a free swinger struggling to make contact.
Contract Situation:
JDM is under contract for each of the next two seasons at a rate of $19.35 million per season, though he once again has an opt out after this year. As of now, Red Sox fans should be less concerned with whether or not he might opt out than whether or not he can revert to his 2018-19 levels of production.
2021 And Beyond:
A full-time designated hitter at this point, Martinez will likely hit either second or fourth this season, depending on how Alex Cora wants to utilize him and Devers. There isn't a lot of statistical analysis that goes into what happened in 2020. He was downright bad. Maybe it was a two-month blip or maybe the in-game video is really that important. Regardless of what went wrong, it's no secret that the Sox need him to bounce back and lengthen a lineup that'll once again be without Mookie Betts.
Set to enter his eighth full season in Boston, Xander Bogaerts is the unofficial captain of the Red Sox. Ever since his late-season arrival in 2013, the homegrown infielder has become a consistent presence both in the field and in the middle of the lineup. It feels as if we've grown use to Bogaerts holding things down at shortstop, but this was once a position that mostly resembled a revolving door for the franchise.
Following the 2004 midseason trade of Nomar Garciaparra, we witnessed a litany of players pass through this position, often for just a season or two. Yet somewhat incredibly, Bogaerts has already played the fifth most games all time as the shortstop of the Boston Red Sox. He's on pace to become the club's all-time leader midway through the 2022 campaign.
2020:
Offensively, Bogaerts broke out for good in 2018. Up until then he was mostly viewed as someone who his for average and some occasional pop. From 2014-17 he hit 12, 7, 21, and 10 homers respectively. But it all clicked with the arrival of manager Alex Cora in '18, who encouraged X to be more aggressive on pitches down the middle of the plate. Whereas the Red Sox used to be known for taking pitches and driving up pitches counts, the most recent World Series title was won by an aggressive approach at middle-middle offerings. His best season was 2019, totaling 33 homers, 117 RBI, 110 runs, a .309 BA, and a .939 OPS.
Anyways, it was more of the same for Bogaerts last summer. He hit an even .300 with a rock-solid .866 OPS and 11 homers in 56 games. He even went a perfect 8-for-8 in stolen base attempts. In a year where so much went wrong for Boston, Bogaerts was his consistently great self.
Contract Situation:
Prior to 2019 Bogaerts signed a (somewhat team-friendly) six-year, $120 million extension that kicked in this past summer. This contract takes him through the 2026 season, though he has an opt out after 2022.
2021 And Beyond:
The potential opt out is going to be an interesting situation for Boston. I discussed the reliability he has given us as a shortstop during his tenure with the franchise. While Bogaerts is able to make all the plays hit in his vicinity with relative ease, he doesn't have high-end range and is therefore pretty average defensively. There are some rumors that the Sox are going hard after Trevor Story next offseason, which would bring into question the future defensive homes of both Bogaerts and Rafael Devers. Would pursuing Story be enough of a turn off for Bogaerts that he'd opt out and leave? It's tough to say.
As for 2021, X is projected to hit either fourth or fifth as of now. While he isn't a Statcast darling by any means, there's no reason to expect his production to suffer in the slightest.
There's a case to be made that Devers is the highest upside hitter the Red Sox have home grown since Nomar Garciappara in the late-90s. As a 22-year-old in 2019, Devers got off to a slow start at the plate. He was famously held without a homer through May 2nd, though he was hitting .294 with a 99 wRC+ up until that point.
Over his final 575 plate appearances the wunderkind slashed .314/.357/.593 with a staggering 32 homers, 112 runs scored, and 105 RBI. It was a monstrous finish to a season that established him as one of baseball's best young stars. The most encouraging sign was the reduction in strikeout rate. In 2018 Devers struck out in 24.7% of his plate appearances. He lowered that clip to 17.0% in 2019. His average exit velocity ranked within the top-5% of big league hitters. Doing damage without striking out all that much is quite the recipe for success.
2020:
Devers once again got off to a slow start in 2020, posting a paltry .543 OPS over his first 14 games. Once again, he rebounded, putting together an .868 OPS over his final 41 contests. The 23-year-old actually increased his average exit velocity last summer, showing that he can still make pitchers pay when he makes contact. The concern is that over the course of the season he struck out more than ever.
The above table, courtesy of FanGraphs, highlights Devers' swing tendencies throughout his career. His O-Swing is how often he chases pitches outside the zone. His O-Contact is how often he connects on these pitches he swings at.
As evidenced above, Devers has chased more and more each year he's been in the majors. Worse, it appears as if he made an unsustainable amount of contact on pitches outside the zone in his breakout 2019, which led to the reduction in strikeout rate. There's no doubt that he still crushed the ball when he made contact last year, but he'll need to stop chasing so often if he wants to be among the game's elite hitters.
Contract Situation:
Devers will earn $4.575 million in 2021 in his first year of arbitration. He's under team control for a total of three more seasons. There's no reason the Red Sox shouldn't begin discussing a possible extension with him.
2021 And Beyond:
Devers enters this season as a core member of the Red Sox, both in the present and for the future. While his defense remains shaky (career-worst .891 fielding percentage in 2020) there hasn't yet been strong talk of moving him off third. He was actually a plus defender in 2019, though that was his only plus season in the field.
He'll likely hit second or fourth in the lineup depending on Alex Cora's preference. Still just 24 years old, this season is a big one for Devers. He has shown he has a floor of being a good hitter, but Sox fans would love to see him return to his 2019 production and re-enter that elite tier.
Thanks to everyone who followed along during my time at blogspot!!!! However, all future blogs will now be posted at toomuchtuma.com In the meantime please enjoy this video of Pablo Sanchez beating the absolute shit out of a baseball.
I had never heard of Chris Devenski until this year. There may be a lot of baseball fans who still don't know who he is. In order to catch you up to speed here is what you need to know:
--He was a 25th round pick by the White Sox in 2011 who was traded to the Astros a year later as the "player to be named later" in the Bretty Myers deal.
--He reached the majors as a 25-year-old in 2016 and finished fourth in the American League Rookie of the Year voting. His 2.16 ERA led all AL pitchers who threw at least 100 innings.
--Devenski made 48 appearances last season, which included five as a starter. Once he became a full time reliever in the second half he threw 49 2/3 innings and struck out 57 with a sub 2.00 ERA.
Basically he's a pretty good reliever. So what? There's plenty of those in the majors these days. That's true, except Devenski isn't your typical relief pitcher - at least not the way he's being used right now by Astros manager A.J. Hinch. I want to call him the next Andrew Miller but even that isn't a perfect comparison. Here's Devenski's game log so far in 2017. Notice how many innings he's pitched in each appearance:
The Astros are a very analytically oriented club so they are subscribing to the theory of using your best relievers in the game's biggest spots regardless of the inning. And whether or not you buy in to advanced stats the thought process is hard to argue with.
So this begs the question - when should baseball teams use their best relief pitcher? Traditionalists will tell you to save him for the ninth inning since those are "the three toughest outs to get". In a sense this is true. The final three outs of a ball game are when every batter is locked in and all the fans/media are watching closely. But what if the opposing team has their 7-8-9 hitters coming up to bat in the ninth and you have a three run lead? Is it worth using your best reliever in this spot? If it's a must win game, sure, but we don't want to fall into the trap of having to use your best bullpen arm in the ninth just because it's the way we've always done it.
I'm going to use my favorite team, the Red Sox, as an example here. Let's say it's the eighth inning and the Sox have a one run lead against the Orioles. Coming up to bat is the heart of their order including Manny Machado, Chris Davis, and Mark Trumbo. Should Boston use their perfectly fine set up man Matt Barnes, or their dominant "closer" Craig Kimbrel? Traditional baseball wisdom would have you use the set up man since it's the eighth inning, but that would mean Barnes would pitch against the Orioles' best hitters while (assuming all went well) Kimbrel would get the bottom of the order. That doesn't make sense. If Kimbrel is Boston's best reliever, and if in this particular game the eighth inning happens to be the highest leverage spot, shouldn't the Red Sox use him then?
Of course, not every example is going to be that cut and dry. The point is not just to use your best arm against the opponents best bats. The point is that teams should be open to thinking differently when it comes to bullpen usage. But each team is different. Some have three great relievers while others only have one. Part of what makes the Indians so dangerous is they can use Andrew Miller in the earlier innings and still hand the ball off to a dominant Cody Allen in the ninth. During the first few weeks of 2017 Houston appears to have a similar luxury, with Ken Giles typically handling the ninth while Devenski filling in wherever he's needed.
All this bullpen usage theory has gotten me away from celebrating the great Devenski. Through 13 1/3 innings he has a 1.35 ERA with 25 strikeouts and just one walk. Essentially the Astros are using him the way the Indians used Andrew miller last post-season. They'll bring him in to pitch in high leverage situations (whether it's the fourth inning or eighth inning) and they'll ride him for multiple innings. The only difference is that Devenski was a starter so recently that he can go four innings on a day if need be. Right now he is on pace to throw around 120 innings out the bullpen, which is very out of the norm for relief pitchers. But that's why Chris Devenski isn't your typical reliever. He's Andrew Miller on steroids.
--Let's get right into the biggest story of the weekend, which was the fallout from Manny Machado's hard slide into Dustin Pedroia Friday night. There's already been a lot said and written about this so I don't want to spend too much time on the matter. My thoughts are that Machado was definitely intending to slide hard into second base. However, he was definitely not trying to cleat Pedroia, as evidenced by how he immediately went to help him up. I think what happened was that he slid harder than he wanted to, realized he had come in too hard, and then went to help Pedey up.
--Still, Machado slid hard at one of our best players so he deserved to get beaned in the ass. Or in the shoulder. Not the head. Absolutely not the head. Maybe Matt Barnes' pitch slipped a little but he definitely shouldn't have done what he did. On one hand good for Matty B for protecting one of his best players. He just should have been smarter about where he was throwing the ball. On the other hand if you're the Orioles you're now going to be seeking revenge. Baltimore comes to Fenway a week from today, Monday May 1st, and I have a feeling we haven't seen the end of this drama yet.
--What is getting lost in yesterday's fiasco is how well the Red Sox played. Markus Lynn Betts continued his streak of hitting homers at Camden Yards and Hanley Ramirez finally hit his first of the season, but the day belonged to Andrew Benintendi. Benny Baseball became the youngest Red Sox player since Tony Conigliario in 1967 to record five hits in a game. Benny went a perfect 5-for-5 (all singles) to raise his batting average on the year to .347 (!!!), which is good for fourth best in the American League. Even more impressive right now is his .415 on base percentage. I cautioned fans after his Opening Day homer to temper expectations from him in the power department. Well he hasn't homered since but that's alright. The contact skills and batting eye are legit. So far Benny is rewarding manager John Farrell's faith to bat him second at just 22 years old.
--On the pitching side of things, the Barnes/Machado incident overshadowed a brilliant start by Eduardo Rodriguez, who threw six shutout innings with seven strikeouts. This outing was particularly impressive since the left handed Rodriguez was dealing with a murderers row of right handed Baltimore bats. This was easily Fast Eddy's best start of the year and his ERA on the season now sits at 3.12 to go along with 22 strikeouts in 17 1/13 innings pitched. The concern for him right now, other than continuing to develop a reliable third pitch, would be the 12 walks he has allowed. I'm skeptical as to whether or not he will ever become a top of the rotation starter, but if he gets the walks under control the upside is immense.
--It would have been interesting to see what Chris "Best Pitcher in the American League" Sale would have done had he been starting over the weekend. He's intense enough to plunk Machado but also seems like the type who would prefer to just strike him out three times. Regardless Sale has been even better than we could have hoped for so far in 2017. Last Thursday afternoon he dominated a pathetic Blue Jays lineup for eight shutout innings while racking up 13 K's. Through his first four starts as a Red Sox Sale has pitched 29.2 innings while giving up just three runs (0.91 ERA) and has struck out a league leading 42 batters. His 0.71 WHIP ranks second in the majors and only Mike Trout (1.9) has accumulated more WAR than Sale so far (1.8) according to baseball-reference.
--I have zero problem with Farrell pulling Sale after 102 pitches against the Blue Jays on Thursday. We want him fresh come October and he was handing the ball off to one of the best relief pitchers in baseball so far in 2017. Many fans were nervous about Craig Kimbrel entering the year. How could you not be after he walked 5.1 per nine in his first season in Boston? Yet through his first 9 1/3 innings Kimbrel has been dominant this year. He has a 1.93 ERA with a 17-to-2 strikeout to walk ratio. His 1.9 walks per nine right now would be the best of his career if the season ended today.
Random Stuff:
--I want to take a moment to recognize the job done by manager John Farrell thus far this year. Farrell receives a ton of well deserved shit from fans and the media year after year. No, he is not a great (or even good) in game manager, but so far I think he's managed the bullpen very nicely. For the most part Matty B and Heath Hembree have been used in the right spots to close the bridge to Kimbrel.
--David Price is scheduled to throw a 45-50 pitch bullpen at Fenway on Monday. He's going to be taking breaks in between to simulate an actual start and if all goes well the team will design a plan for him to start pitching in rehab games. We aren't out of the woods yet but if this session goes well we should receive an actual timetable for his return to Boston.
--The Sox now return to Boston for a 10 game home stand against some good competition. They'll face the Yankees three times, the Cubs three times, and the Orioles four times. Through 19 games the Sox have a record of 11-8, but we'll know a lot more about how good we are after this week and a half.
Maybe we shouldn't be surprised that the Giants' season is already going down the drain. It's an odd numbered year after all. Since 2010 the Giants have won the World Series that year, in 2012, and in 2014. They have missed the playoffs altogether in 2011, 2013, and 2015. Last year, in 2016, the team made the post-season, fell down two games to none to the Cubs, won game three, and came within a game four bullpen meltdown to forcing game five. The formula has always been the same. Posey + Pitching = Championships. While the Giants still have Posey and some decent pitchers, losing one of baseball's five best starters might be too much to overcome.
This injury marks Madison Bumgarner's first ever trip to the disabled list. The fact that it happened as a non baseball related injury shows how durable he's been over the years. In every season from 2011 through 2016 MadBum made at least 31 starts while pitching over 200 innings. That type of workhorse ace just doesn't exist in 2017. Throughout the years no matter what else was ailing the Giants they could always look towards giving the ball to Bum every five days.
What should have San Francisco most concerned is the type of injury Bumgarner is dealing with, which is the AC joint in his shoulder. The problem with shoulder injuries is they tend to be unpredictable and are often re-aggrivated down the line. That means that even if Bum returns in his six to eight week projection, there could be setbacks.
Right now the Giants are just 6-11 and find themselves in last place in the National League West. If they remain out of contention as Bumgarner's return nears they should keep him out even longer. Bum is just 27 years old and the last thing San Fran wants is for this shoulder to become a problem in 2018 and beyond. Unless they feel like they have a real good shot at the playoffs this year they should operate as cautiously as possible.
Well we are not even three full weeks into the 2017 season and it seems like we can already declare that Bryce Harper is BACK. Last night Bryce had one of those games where he reminds you of how he became the youngest unanimous MVP in the over 100 year history of Major League Baseball. Bryce went 4-for-4 with two home runs, a double, five RBIs, a walk, and three runs scored as the Nationals beat the piss out of the Braves 14-4. It's been the continuation of a three weak tear for Harper that began in the very first game of the year.
Bryce Harper on Opening Day:
2013: 2 home runs
2014: N/A
2015: 1 home run
2016: 1 home run
2017: 1 home run
His incredible month of April continued on Easter Sunday when he came up to bat with two on and two outs with the Nationals trying by one. Bryce then did this:
We know Harper was disappointing last year following his MVP performance in 2015. I'll be the first to admit that Bryce rubs a lot of people the wrong way so everyone wanted to jump onto the bandwagon of this meaning he was a flash in the pan or that he couldn't live up to the hype he had set for himself. But for the millionth time let's take a look at what happened last year:
He began 2016 on a hot streak similar to what he's doing right now. Through his first 15 games he hit .321 with eight home runs and 22 RBIs. If anything he was performing even better than the year prior and he had idiots like me declaring he had won the Trout versus Harper debate. He was so good that the Cubs wanted absolutely nothing to do with him during a four game series in May where they walked him 13 times. Baseball hadn't seem someone get that type of respect since Barry Bonds. And then...nothing. The production just stopped. Harper became a shell of himself and finished the year with a .243 batting average and just 1.6 WAR.
So what happened? Were the haters right? Well if it his start to 2017 is any indication it looks like he was just playing hurt. It came out once during the season and then again this off-season that Bryce was dealing with a shoulder injury suffered mid way through last year, which just so happens to be around when he started struggling. Hmmm. What do shoulder injuries do to a hitter? They affect a hitter's ability to hit the ball hard that's what. So let's look at a stat called soft contact percent, which is exactly what it sounds like. It measures how often a hitter makes soft (weak) contact on a batted ball.
For some perspective, in Harper's MVP season he had a soft contact percent of 11.9 according to FanGraphs. That number rose to 19.8 (!!!) percent in 2016. For his career, including when he played through this shoulder injury, Bryce's soft contact percent is 15.0. So what does that mean? Well for one it likely proves he was playing hurt during the second half of last year. If you want to tell me he regressed a little after 2015, well I can buy that too. His breakout season was so good it would've been tough to repeat it. But what you cannot tell me is that his soft contact percent rose that much for no reason. There was something else going on and the timing of the shoulder injury makes too much sense.
Fast forward to this year. As stated earlier Bryce is off to a scorching hot start. Through 14 games entering Thursday night he is slashing .404/.516/.846 with six home runs and 18 RBIs. His 1.3 WAR according to Baseball-Reference ranks second among position players. Just to make sure everyone is reading that triple slash line correctly, yes, that means Harper has gotten on base over 50% of the time so far. And how should we know he's "back" as opposed to just having a couple of good weeks? His soft contact percent this year is 7.1. Freed of last season's shoulder injury he is making weak contact at a rate even lower than his unanimous MVP winning 2015. It's official, Bryce is back.
Chris Sale had a weird season in 2016. On the bright side, he finished with career highs in games started (32) and innings pitched (226 2/3). However, the increased durability resulted in a lot fewer strikeouts and his rate stats fell drastically. After leading the league in K/9 in both 2014 (10.8) and 2015 (11.8) that number dropped to 9.3 last year. Often times a decrease in strikeouts, combined with a drop in velocity, could mean a pitcher is headed for a decline.
But that was not the case for the best pitcher in the American League. It turns out that Sale's strikeout numbers were actually down on purpose. It was part of a plan developed by Sale and White Sox pitching coach Don Cooper to allow the ace to pitch deeper into games by having easier innings. The thought process made sense - Sale was 27 at the time and had four seasons under his belt as a starting pitcher exerting maximum effort during every at bat. By making a conscious decision to pitch more to contact by pounding the strike zone he would be able to save some bullets for the playoffs.
The plan worked, and actually had an unintentional consequence that could help Sale have a career year in 2017. While Chicago wasn't able to reap the rewards in the playoffs the experiment gave him another method of attacking hitters. Throwing hard and striking batters out can only work for so long. Eventually a pitcher's velocity will decline and if they haven't learned other ways of pitching to batters then they are not going to have success into their 30s (think Tim Lincecum).
But so far in 2017 Sale is not there yet. His velocity is back and with it so are the strikeouts. In 21 2/3 innings this year he has struck out 29 while recording a 1.25 ERA. He has already complied two games of 10+ strikeouts, which represents half of his total from a year ago (when he did not record his first double digit strikeout game until the beginning of August).
This means we are witnessing prime Chris Sale right now. So far he has been able to both strike guys out and go deep into games. He has the stuff to get a K when he needs it, yet has also learned to pitch to contact if his pitch count is getting high. And sometimes even when he's "pitching to contact" he'll strike guys out because his stuff is that good. Chris Sale is not back to being his old self - he's the best version of himself we have ever seen.
